Nordic hydropower reserves declined for the first time since week 17 last week (week 38), with stocks at 81.2% of capacity, or 103.03TWh amid a sharp on-week fall in precipitation, with higher demand also contributing to the loss.

• Stocks decreased by 0.7 percentage points compared to a 1.6-point gain the week prior. This is the first time stocks have noted a loss since having started their upward trend in week 18 of this year.
• Precipitation in the Nordic region over 16-22 Sept totalled 1.8mm (week 38) compared to 45.8mm totalled over 9-15 Sept (week 37) – weighing on stocks.
• Higher demand on the week also weighed, with Norwegian demand averaging 13.29GW compared to 12.93GW in week 37. Swedish demand averaged 12.8GW from 12.7GW over the same period.
• Reservoir levels flipped to a 0.8-point deficit on the year compared to a 3.6-point surplus the week prior.
• The deficit to the 19-year average widened to 2.9 points from 1.4 points in week 37. This is now the largest deficit since week 34.
• Swedish reserves moved downward to be at 78.9% of capacity from 79.6%, with Norwegian reserves falling to 83.3% from 84.1% of capacity.
• And Finnish hydro stocks continued their fall, dropping to 60.8% of capacity from 62.4% the week prior and was 13 points lower on the year.
• Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF suggests Norway’s and Sweden’s hydrological balance to end at +2.86TWh and +1.36TWh, respectively, on 9 Oct compared to +2.36TWh and +1.07TWh in the previous forecasts for the same day.

• The latest ECMWF rain forecasts for Nordics suggest precipitation to reach 7.8mm tomorrow to later reach as high as 8.9mm on 27 Sept – up compared to the norm of just 2.7mm.