The German and French day-ahead base-load contracts were higher on the day – as forecasts for a drop in wind lent support to costs despite reduced power demand from the previous session. The French market flipped back to a discount to Germany and is likely to widen on 30 Sept amid higher lower load factors of French wind.

• The German day-ahead spot settled at €29.07/MWh from €14.76/MWh in the previous day.
• The French day-ahead spot cleared at €27.14/MWh from €15.05/MWh in the previous day.
• Despite the rise, prices did reach as low as €0.00/MWh for some hours in both countries.
• German wind output is expected at 8.34-22.85GW, or load factors of 13-35% over 28-29 Sept before being at 23.61GW on 30 Sept, according to Spot Renewables. This is likely to put some weight on power prices to early next week from the weekend although higher demand is likely to support costs.
• German power demand is forecast to average between 43.3-46.6GW over 28-29 Sept, down from 54.1GW forecast for Friday. Demand will then increase between 53.7-55.45GW over 30 Sept-1 Oct.
• In contrast, French wind output is expected at 3.46-4.60GW, or load factors of 17-23% over the weekend before being at a 55% load factor on 30 Sept – which could keep France at a discount to Germany.
• The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast suggested mean temperatures in Paris have been revised down to be below the seasonal normal for most of the forecast period.
• France’s nuclear reactors were operating at 66% of full capacity on Friday morning, unchanged from Thursday.
• However, the 1.3GW Cattenom 1 and 1.3GW Cattenom 4 back are anticipated be both back online on 28 August, according to Bloomberg.