NZGBs closed 3-6bp weaker, in the middle of the local session’s range, with the 2/10 cash curve steeper.

• Swap rates are flat to 4bp higher with implied swap spreads tighter.
• The local calendar saw a couple of releases today. In addition to the previously mentioned REINZ house sales and price data, the RBNZ published Q3 household expectations survey results. The median expected inflation rate in 2 years to be 3.5% down from 5% in Q2. The survey also showed median expected house price inflation in 1 year of 0.0%.
• Tomorrow sees the RBNZ policy decision, with Bloomberg consensus unanimous in expecting the OCR to be kept at 5.50%.
• RBNZ dated OIS is flat across meetings out to Feb’24 and 1-7bp firmer for meetings beyond. The market attaches an 8% chance of a 25bp hike tomorrow.
• Over the past six weeks, terminal OCR expectations have primarily traded within a range of 5.60-5.65%, aside from a brief uptick to 5.81% in early July. This trading pattern aligns with the "watch, worry, and wait" guidance issued by the RBNZ during its May Monetary Policy Statement.
• Later today, US retail sales, empire manufacturing, business inventories and cross-border investment are due.