A new survey from the New York Times has revealed major concerns about President Biden’s electability, with former President Donald Trump ahead in 5/6 crucial swing states - all of which Biden won in 2020. The survey finds Trump with a huge polling lead, across the swings states, on the economy, national security, and immigration.

• Betting markets have responded with a shift towards Trump. According to Smarkets, Trump is now slightly favoured to win in 2024 (38%-32%), ending an extended period as a dead heat.
• Former Obama advisor Dan Pfeiffer: “This poll shows that not only can Trump win, he might now be a slight favorite to do so... we should take [the poll] very, very seriously.”
• Politico writes, in an analysis of the survey: “...if Biden were not the Democratic nominee, [an] unnamed generic Democrat defeats Trump by 8 points (48% to 40%), [and leads] in all 6 battleground states.”
• The survey suggests that Biden has failed to address major concerns about his physical capacity and economic competence and may provoke serious debate in the White House about a ‘plan B’ Democrat nominee.
• However, a year out from the presidential election, polling is better viewed as a gauge of political temperature rather than a statement of voting intention. This is especially true of 2024 with Trump's legal problems raising uncertainty over the eventual GOP nominee. Democrat strategists outwardly express confidence that Democrat voters will show up for Biden at the ballot box when faced with a binary choice between Biden and Trump.