Norges Bank’s guidance is broadly consistent with the September MPR rate path, which assigns a ~20% implied probability of a 25bp cut at the December meeting.

• The base case is clearly that rates would be gradually reduced “from the first quarter of 2025”.
• However, the discussion around inflation being lower than expected (for over a year now) is a little more extensive than in the September policy statement.
• As such, there may still be a narrow path to a cut at the December meeting (which is forecasted by five analysts whose views we track).
• We don’t think the November decision will lead to wholesale changes in analyst forecasts:
• Those looking for a cut in early 2025 won’t have received enough evidence in the November policy statement to suggest a dovish pivot is in the cards.
• But those forecasting a December cut will note Norges Bank's acknowledgement that inflation has consistently undershot projections.