TTF front month is holding within the €38.845/MWH to €40.795/MWh range seen last week with a recovery in Norwegian pipeline supply to Europe set against the forecast of cooler weather into the start of November.  Some focus remains on geopolitical risks as the market continues to wait for Israel’s retaliation for Iran’s October 1 attack.

• The temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to hold above normal this week but dip below normal into the last couple of days of October and into the start of November.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up to the highest since mid August at 330.9mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows unavailable capacity between 30.6mcm/d and 35.6mcm/d until Oct. 25.
• European LNG sendout was at 246mcm/d on Oct. 19 compared to an average of 290mcm/d over the previous week, according to Bloomberg.
• European gas storage has edged up to 95.18% full on Oct. 19, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 92.1%.
• Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today at 53.9mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
• Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.0mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 202k on Oct. 18.
  • TTF NOV 24 up 1.3% at 39.7€/MWh
  • TTF Q1 25 up 1% at 40.31€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 25 up 1.2% at 38.39€/MWh