Portugal holds a snap legislative election on 10 March following the resignation of Prime Minister António Costa in late 2023. The election will mark a notable change in the country’s political environment, with Costa having served as PM since 2015. A fractured political landscape makes one party winning a majority in the Assembly of the Republic an unlikely scenario. As such, the formation of a coalition or minority government after the election is set to be required. There is significant focus on the post-election negotiations, given the prospect that the right-wing Chega is involved in supporting a minority administration for the first time. The vote will also be closely watched in Brussels for indications for the split of MEPs from Portugal at the upcoming European Parliament elections in June.
In this preview we provide scenario analysis of the election outcomes with assigned probabilities, a financial market outlook, as well as background information on the parties, electoral system, and the events that led to the snap vote, and a chartpack of recent opinion polling.
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