For the week ahead, the spotlight will be on US jobs data, ISM PMIs and the RBA rate decision.
MONDAY
Switzerland CPI: Swiss CPI is expected to cool for a fourth consecutive month in June, with consensus looking for a 0.4pp deceleration to +1.8% y/y. This would be under the SNB target range for the first time since January 2022. On the month, prices are anticipated to tick up by +0.2% m/m. The SNB will be closely watching the core rate, which eased to +2.1% y/y in May after three months at a high of +2.5% y/y. At the June SNB meeting, the 25bps hike accompanied a revision lower for short-term CPI projections with year-end 2023 CPI projected at 2.0% for Q4 from 2.3% previously.
Final Manufacturing PMIs: Final manufacturing PMI prints are due on Monday, with services to follow on Wednesday. Advance PMIs for June suggested that the Eurozone economy had slowed sharply, with the service sector PMI dropping more than expected and the manufacturing PMI falling further into contractionary territory. In the US, the manufacturing PMI fell more than expected into contractionary territory and sat just above the lows from December of last year.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Consensus is looking for a marginal 0.2-point improvement in the ISM manufacturing PMI to 47.1 for June, following a larger 1.1-point uptick in the MNI Chicago PMI on Friday. This would imply eight consecutive months of contractionary business activity as falling New Orders continue to signal worrisome demand conditions in the US industry.
TUESDAY
Australia Rate Decision: The Bloomberg consensus leaning towards a no-change decision from the RBA in July, which is seen holding the Cash Rate target steady at 4.10%. Markets expect the rate to peak at 4.5% by November.
WEDNESDAY
France Industrial Production: Kicking off the round of major eurozone May IP data, French industrial production is seen contracting by -0.4% m/m, after a robust +0.8% m/m April expansion largely boosted by less strike action. At +0.3% y/y, 2023 June IP is expected to be only marginally stronger than last year.
Eurozone PPI: Headline eurozone producer prices are projected to enter deflationary territory for the first time since December 2020 in the May data, with consensus pencilling in a -1.6% y/y decline. PPI is seen declining by -1.8% m/m, after a more pronounced -3.2% m/m April fall. As a leading indicator for CPI, this signals a further reduction in eurozone goods inflation, which softened by 0.3pp to +5.5% y/y in the June flash report.
US Factory Orders: A +0.8% m/m rise in US factory orders is pencilled in for May, after the advance durable goods orders jumped by +1.7% m/m, led by a surge in transport orders, in particular aeroplanes and to a lesser extent auto.
THURSDAY
Germany Factory Orders: Preceding Friday’s German industrial production data, German factory orders will give indication demand conditions in May. Expectations are currently for a +1.2% m/m rebound, after volatile large-scale orders drove the -0.4% m/m April decline. Looking forward, the June manufacturing PMI found new orders fell at the sharpest rate in eight months, implying that current production is largely bolstered by past demand.
Eurozone Retail Sales: After flat May retail sales, euro-area retailing is expected to rise a modest +0.2% m/m in June. Consumer confidence improved slightly in June, with a small improvement in major purchasing intensions promising, albeit remining below-average, implying that weak consumption is likely to persist in the near-term.
US ISM Services PMI: Consensus is looking for a one-point improvement in the US ISM services PMI to 51.3 in June. This follows the 1.6-point decline in May, as the service industry lost momentum largely on the back of a pronounced deceleration in new orders. Whilst services activity remains robust, with an expansive PMI for five consecutive months, concerns regarding waning demand are beginning to materialise.
FRIDAY
Germany Industrial Production: German industrial production is expected to be flat in May, after muted growth at +0.3% m/m in April, implying lacklustre production levels. Recently German IP has diverged across sectors, with growth in construction and a jump in pharma outweighing engineering and auto contractions.
US Nonfarm Payrolls: US payroll data for June is projected to show another month of robust hiring, with around +225k payrolls anticipated after +339k. The household survey will be watched closely after particular volatility in May's report drove a 0.3pp jump in the unemployment rate, with analysts looking for a slight paring of this increase back to 3.6%. Annualised earnings data is expected to decelerate marginally from +4.3% y/y to +4.2% y/y in June. This follows the Fed’s June pause, and indication of the July meeting being “live” for the possibility of a hike, yet this move will become more apparent once the June CPI data is released.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 03/07/2023 | 2300/0900 | ** |  | AU | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/07/2023 | 2350/0850 | *** |  | JP | Tankan |
| 03/07/2023 | 0030/0930 | ** |  | JP | IHS Markit Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 03/07/2023 | 0130/1130 | * |  | AU | Building Approvals |
| 03/07/2023 | 0130/1130 | ** |  | AU | Lending Finance Details |
| 03/07/2023 | 0145/0945 | ** |  | CN | IHS Markit Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 03/07/2023 | 0630/0830 | *** |  | CH | CPI |
| 03/07/2023 | 0700/0300 | * |  | TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/07/2023 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | ES | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/07/2023 | 0745/0945 | ** |  | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/07/2023 | 0750/0950 | ** |  | FR | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/07/2023 | 0755/0955 | ** |  | DE | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/07/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/07/2023 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 03/07/2023 | - | *** |  | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 03/07/2023 | 1345/0945 | *** |  | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 03/07/2023 | 1400/1000 | *** |  | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 03/07/2023 | 1400/1000 | * |  | US | Construction Spending |
| 03/07/2023 | 1400/1000 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 03/07/2023 | 1530/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 03/07/2023 | 1530/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 04/07/2023 | 0430/1430 | *** |  | AU | RBA Rate Decision |
| 04/07/2023 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | Trade Balance |
| 05/07/2023 | 2300/0900 | * |  | AU | IHS Markit Final Australia Services PMI |
| 05/07/2023 | 0030/0930 | ** |  | JP | IHS Markit Final Japan Services PMI |
| 05/07/2023 | 0145/0945 | ** |  | CN | IHS Markit Final China Services PMI |
| 05/07/2023 | 0645/0845 | * |  | FR | Industrial Production |
| 05/07/2023 | 0700/0900 | ** |  | ES | Industrial Production |
| 05/07/2023 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | ES | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/07/2023 | 0745/0945 | ** |  | IT | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/07/2023 | 0750/0950 | ** |  | FR | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 05/07/2023 | 0755/0955 | ** |  | DE | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 05/07/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) |
| 05/07/2023 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
| 05/07/2023 | 0900/1100 | ** |  | EU | PPI |
| 05/07/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 05/07/2023 | 1255/0855 | ** |  | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 05/07/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** |  | US | IBD/TIPP Optimism Index |
| 05/07/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** |  | US | Factory New Orders |
| 05/07/2023 | 1800/1400 | * |  | US | FOMC Statement |
| 05/07/2023 | 2000/1600 |  | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 06/07/2023 | 0130/1130 | ** |  | AU | Trade Balance |
| 06/07/2023 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 06/07/2023 | 0730/0930 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06/07/2023 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06/07/2023 | 0900/1100 | ** |  | EU | Retail Sales |
| 06/07/2023 | 1100/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 06/07/2023 | 1215/0815 | *** |  | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 06/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 06/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 06/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 06/07/2023 | 1245/0845 |  | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 06/07/2023 | 1345/0945 | *** |  | US | IHS Markit Services Index (final) |
| 06/07/2023 | 1400/1000 | *** |  | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 06/07/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** |  | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 06/07/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** |  | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 06/07/2023 | 1500/1100 | ** |  | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 07/07/2023 | 0545/0745 | ** |  | CH | Unemployment |
| 07/07/2023 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | Industrial Production |
| 07/07/2023 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | NO | Norway GDP |
| 07/07/2023 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | SE | Private Sector Production |
| 07/07/2023 | 0645/0845 | * |  | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 07/07/2023 | 0800/1000 | * |  | IT | Retail Sales |
| 07/07/2023 | 0830/1030 |  | EU | ECB de Guindos Keynote Address at King's College | |
| 07/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 07/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | US | Employment Report |
| 07/07/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 07/07/2023 | 1400/1000 | * |  | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 07/07/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** |  | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 07/07/2023 | 1645/1845 |  | EU | ECB Lagarde Panels Rencontres Economiques |
