TUESDAY- RBA SEPTEMBER DECISION MINUTES
The October RBA Minutes will be gauge for any more insights into new Governor Bullock's thinking around the current policy backdrop. The monetary policy meeting earlier this month, which was the first she chaired as Governor, had minimal changes in it compared to the September statement. This says something in itself - for now it is business as usual. The Board retained its tightening bias and so has kept its options open for the November 7 decision given there will be updated forecasts and Q3 CPI due on October 25.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY - UK LABOUR MARKET AND CPI
The UK sees a partial labour market report on Tuesday and CPI data released Wednesday. Inflation data for September are generally expected to see a small fall in Y/Y terms across both the headline and core (with a bigger decline expected in the headline rate in September due to energy price base effects). The Bank of England will likely remain focused on services inflation but as we noted previously output and survey data has become somewhat more important and the bar to a November hike will lower be higher than previously. The ONS has flagged some delays surrounding the labour market report. Our expectation is that we will see AWE, vacancies and PAYE data and most of the main subindices (but not all) released on Tuesday, as scheduled. But the employment / unemployment rates, the regional data and the rest of the subindices will be released one week later. The main market focus will be on the private sector regular pay data.
WEDNESDAY - EUROZONE FINAL SEPTEMBER INFLATION
Eurozone final inflation is released on Wednesday. The point estimate will likely confirm the flash readings of 4.3% Y/Y and 0.3% M/M for headline, and 4.5% Y/Y for core. While not a market mover, the release will allow for a more granular analysis of the drivers of September inflation, as the flash estimate was soft relative to expectations. The fall in Y/Y core inflation was likely largely driven by the German transport ticket and other statistical / base effects, but the softer figure versus consensus may reflect more broad based disinflation than was expected. Additionally, the Eurostat data will be accompanied by the ECB's measures of underlying inflation, which are more closely watched by policymakers to determine inflation persistence and where inflation is likely to land in the medium term.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY - CHINA GDP, BOK AND BOI
China Q3 GDP is released on Wednesday, and is expected to show a further slowdown in the world's second largest economy. Y/Y GDP is expected to be 4.5% (vs 6.3% prior), Q/Q GDP is seen at 1.0% (vs 0.8% prior) while the YTD GDP growth rate is expected at 5.1% (vs 5.5% prior).
The Bank of Korea (BOK) is unanimously expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.5% again on Thursday, in order to counter colliding financial risks increasingly complicating the roadmap to economic recovery.
Bank Indonesia is also expected to keep its 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 5.75% on Thursday, while reiterating its commitment to IDR stability.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 14/10/2023 | 0030/0930 | ** |  | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 14/10/2023 | 1500/1600 |  | UK | BoE's Bailey speaks at G30 Seminar | |
| 14/10/2023 | 1510/1710 |  | EU | ECB's Lagarde participates in G30 seminar panel | |
| 16/10/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 16/10/2023 | 0830/0930 |  | UK | BOE's Pill Speech at the OMFIF | |
| 16/10/2023 | 0900/1100 | * |  | EU | Trade Balance |
| 16/10/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 16/10/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 16/10/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 16/10/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** |  | CA | BOC Business Outlook Survey |
| 16/10/2023 | 1430/1030 |  | US | Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker | |
| 16/10/2023 | 1530/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 16/10/2023 | 1530/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 16/10/2023 | 2030/1630 |  | US | Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker | |
| 17/10/2023 | 0030/1130 | *** |  | AU | RBA board meeting minutes |
| 17/10/2023 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Labour Market Survey |
| 17/10/2023 | 0900/1100 | *** |  | DE | ZEW Current Conditions Index |
| 17/10/2023 | 0900/1100 | *** |  | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 17/10/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 17/10/2023 | 1200/0800 |  | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 17/10/2023 | - |  | EU | ECB's de Guindos attends Luxembourg Ecofin meeting | |
| 17/10/2023 | 1230/0830 | * |  | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 17/10/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | CA | CPI |
| 17/10/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | US | Retail Sales |
| 17/10/2023 | 1255/0855 | ** |  | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 17/10/2023 | 1315/0915 | *** |  | US | Industrial Production |
| 17/10/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** |  | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 17/10/2023 | 1400/1000 | * |  | US | Business Inventories |
| 17/10/2023 | 1445/1045 |  | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 17/10/2023 | 1530/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 17/10/2023 | 1700/1900 |  | EU | ECB's De Guindos Speech at Conference | |
| 17/10/2023 | 2000/1600 | ** |  | US | TICS |
| 18/10/2023 | 2301/0001 | * |  | UK | XpertHR pay deals for whole economy |
| 18/10/2023 | 0200/1000 | *** |  | CN | Fixed-Asset Investment |
| 18/10/2023 | 0200/1000 | *** |  | CN | Retail Sales |
| 18/10/2023 | 0200/1000 | *** |  | CN | Industrial Output |
| 18/10/2023 | 0200/1000 | ** |  | CN | Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M |
| 18/10/2023 | 0200/1000 | *** |  | CN | GDP |
| 18/10/2023 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Consumer inflation report |
| 18/10/2023 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Producer Prices |
| 18/10/2023 | 0900/1100 | *** |  | EU | HICP (f) |
| 18/10/2023 | 0900/1100 | ** |  | EU | Construction Production |
| 18/10/2023 | 1100/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 18/10/2023 | 1215/0815 | ** |  | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 18/10/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | US | Housing Starts |
| 18/10/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** |  | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 18/10/2023 | 1630/1230 |  | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 18/10/2023 | 1700/1300 | ** |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 18/10/2023 | 1700/1300 |  | US | Fed's Tom Barkin, Michelle Bowman | |
| 18/10/2023 | 1800/1400 |  | US | Fed Beige Book | |
| 18/10/2023 | 1915/1515 |  | US | Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker | |
| 19/10/2023 | 0030/1130 | *** |  | AU | Labor Force Survey |
| 19/10/2023 | 0645/0845 | ** |  | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 19/10/2023 | 0645/0845 | * |  | FR | Retail Sales |
| 19/10/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 19/10/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 19/10/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 19/10/2023 | 1230/0830 | * |  | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 19/10/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 19/10/2023 | 1400/1000 | *** |  | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 19/10/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** |  | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 19/10/2023 | 1600/1200 |  | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
| 19/10/2023 | 1700/1300 | ** |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note |
| 19/10/2023 | 1720/1320 |  | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 19/10/2023 | 2000/1600 |  | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 19/10/2023 | 2130/1730 |  | US | Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker | |
| 19/10/2023 | 2240/1840 |  | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 20/10/2023 | 2301/0001 | ** |  | UK | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 20/10/2023 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | PPI |
| 20/10/2023 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Public Sector Finances |
| 20/10/2023 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Retail Sales |
| 20/10/2023 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | SE | Unemployment |
| 20/10/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | CA | Retail Trade |
| 20/10/2023 | 1300/0900 |  | US | Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker | |
| 20/10/2023 | 1615/1215 |  | US | Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester |
