Real time insight of EM credit markets
EM Credit Weekly
Credit Analysis
EM primary activity slowed after January’s record issuance. CEEMEA, was relatively quiet this week
February 06, 2026 09:27Last Week Credit Analysis
Trade tensions and political risk continued to keep
January 30, 2026 14:46EM Credit Update
POLITICAL RISK: US Hits Russia & Venezuela w/New Sanctions: The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has published its latest list of sanctions on entities, individuals, and vessels relating to both the war in Ukraine and the political situation in Venezuela. * Russia - Press Release : https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2777- : Hydrocarbon majors Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas have both been hit. An earlier report : https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/new-us-sanctions-russian-tankers-hit- oil-supplies-india-refining-sources-say-2025-01-10/from Reuters highlighted the industries and entities likely to be hit. Reuters: "The sanctions, imposed on Russia for its war in Ukraine, would cause severe disruption of Russian oil exports to its major buyers India and China,[...] Until now, hundreds of ships and many Russian oil traders have escaped the harshest U.S. sanctions as the Biden administration sought to strike a balance between the case for tighter measures and the risk of a global oil price rally." * US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: "With today's actions, we are ratcheting up the sanctions risk associated with Russia's oil trade, including shipping and financial facilitation in support of Russia's oil exports." * Venezuela - Press Release: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2778 - : Senior figures including the head of state-owned oil firm PDVSA, the transport minister, and head of the state-owned airline have all been placed under sanctions. The announcement comes in the wake of President Nicolas Maduro being sworn in for a third time earlier today. The detention of opposition figurehead Maria Corina Machado on 9 Jan has raised concerns of a further crackdown on the opposition. Tighter sanctions are a very probable scenario once President-elect Donald Trump takes office. VENZ 9.25% 2027, $17.08, -.16
Jan-10 16:02Global liquid EM sovereign bonds both high grade and high yield were generally down .75 to 1 point post the US labor report surprise. Names like SOAF and KSA in the long end were down more than a point and .75 point in the belly while TURKEY, REPHUN and ARGENT were better behaved down .25 - .75 points. In Latam, recently issued Codelco 10yr bonds were .30 lower than new issue pricing while new Mex 10s/30s were down .65 and .90 respectively and new Chile 12 yr fell .60 from issuance with almost all of those losses from new issue coming from today's sell off. The new YPF 9 yr traded lower but unchanged from issuance, giving up gains from two days ago. The headline payroll number of +256k vs 160k expected and 4.1% vs 4.2% from the household survey triggered an immediate selloff in 10 year Treasuries of point and a point in the long end with liquid EM adjusting quickly while off the run high yield corporate bonds re-priced slower. Treasuries recovered somewhat, only down point 10y and longer, but EM bonds have generally not bounced back.
Jan-10 15:07* Bunds are closing 3-7bp wider with 2y/10y yields at 2%/2.11%. The bias was higher through the session and closing at the wides, with rate cut bets being pared back. * IG closes -3bp with beta compression, top performers up to 15 tighter. * SXXP/SPX are +0.3%/-0.1% at 519pts/6079pts. IG's biggest movers include Worldline SA/France (+5%), Forvia SE (+5%), Canadian Imperial Bank of Comm (+5%), Safran SA (-7%), Toronto-Dominion Bank (-6%). * In primary deals from NIBCAP, PUPRIN and EUROB priced. * Main/XO close -1.4bp/-4bp at 53.9bp/292bp.
Dec-05 16:06EM CREDIT UPDATE: This Is A Test Bullet This is a test bullet, please ignore.
Dec-04 08:20EM Credit Bullets
Reuters : https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-daly-sees-labor-market-vulnerabilities-ro om-cut-interest-rates-2026-02-06/on Friday published SF Fed President Daly (2027 FOMC voter)'s first interview since the January meeting, in which she "said she thinks one or two more interest rate cuts may be needed to counteract weakness in the labor market, where workers are "walking a knife's edge" with higher prices eating into their wages and scarce opportunities for new jobs. "I think we have to keep an open mind, a very open mind" on rates, Daly told Reuters in an interview". * Two cuts for 2026 is about where we expected Daly to have been in the December Dot Plot (see our pre-January FOMC meeting guesses below), though in general we think some of these names will have drifted to the higher side since that set of quarterly projections. * In the interview she says she supported the January hold "but frankly, I thought you could make a case for going ahead and taking a little more off". She's "a little more worried about the labor market than I am about inflation", but her threshold to reduce rates is that "you have to be pretty confident, like really confident, that the effects of the tariffs will roll off ... that inflation is really on a downward trajectory."
Feb-06 21:05Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Measure Level DoD 5yr UST 3.76% +4bp 10yr UST 4.21% +3bp 5s-10s UST 44.9 -1bp WTI Crude 63.5 +0.2 Gold 4958 +178.6 Bonds (CBBT) Z-Sprd DoD ARGENT 5 01/09/38 682bp -7bp BRAZIL 6 1/8 03/15/34 219bp -6bp BRAZIL 7 1/8 05/13/54 300bp -5bp COLOM 8 11/14/35 313bp -4bp COLOM 8 3/8 11/07/54 366bp -6bp ELSALV 7.65 06/15/35 353bp -4bp MEX 6 7/8 05/13/37 220bp -4bp MEX 7 3/8 05/13/55 266bp -3bp CHILE 5.65 01/13/37 110bp -3bp PANAMA 6.4 02/14/35 180bp -5bp CSNABZ 5 7/8 04/08/32 932bp +153bp MRFGBZ 3.95 01/29/31 265bp -3bp PEMEX 7.69 01/23/50 455bp -4bp CDEL 6.33 01/13/35 163bp -4bp SUZANO 3 1/8 01/15/32 162bp -2bp FX Level DoD USDBRL 5.22 -0.05 USDCLP 856.03 -10.34 USDMXN 17.3 -0.25 USDCOP 3681.58 -28.51 USDPEN 3.36 -0.01 CDS Level DoD Mexico 88 (3.53) Brazil 126 (2.14) Colombia 198 (2.97) Chile 40 (1.52) CDX EM 98.84 0.09 CDX EM IG 101.36 0.01 CDX EM HY 95.86 0.06 Main stories recap: Major U.S. equity indexes rallied about 2% and Treasury yields climbed 2-4bp across most of the curve in a risk reversal from yesterday triggered in part by a 12% recovery in Bitcoin/USD but also a positive surprise from the University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment survey data. That improved macro sentiment contributed to LATAM secondary market benchmark $ bond spreads generally tightening 2-5bp. Bonds of Brazil troubled companies CSN and Raizen continued to decline as they were subject to negative media reports quoting people familiar with the matter but no official announcements from the companies themselves. CSN reportedly plans to take a $1.5bn secured loan which could result in a subordination of senior unsecured bondholder claims as well as complicate asset sales and debt reduction. Raizen reportedly was talking with advisors about a possible debt restructuring amongst many other options but the market rapidly priced in the restructuring with bonds falling more than 20 points this week and prices converging to a perceived recovery value across the curve.
Feb-06 21:04(RAIZBZ; Ba1*-/BBB-neg/BBB-*-) "following consultation with its controlling shareholders, it was informed that they continue to prioritize the evaluation of alternatives aimed at reducing leverage and addressing the Company's capital structure, in support of its long term strategy. Such evaluations may include the preliminary assessment of different transactions and structures. As of this date, there has been no decision made nor any binding agreement entered into by the Company or its controlling shareholders with respect to any of these alternatives." - Raizen
Feb-06 20:59Consumer credit jumped in December, with total consumer credit owned and securitized up $24.0B ($8.0B expected, $4.7B prior) in the highest reading for 12 months. The flow was split fairly evenly by recent standards, with revolving credit up $13.8B ($-1.7B prior) and nonrevolving $10.2B ($6.4B prior). * (Revolving makes up 25% of overall consumer credit, largely made up of credit cards; nonrevolving credit is basically made up of student and auto loans.) * That's a solid end to 2025 for credit growth, particularly for revolving/credit card activity, so bears watching though overall it hasn't been a major driver of consumption. * We saw some of the strongest credit card demand since 2022 in Q4 2025 per the Fed's latest SLOOS survey, with lending standards loosening slightly (and demand for auto loans dropped considerably, potentially boding ill for non-revolving growth). * Y/Y total consumer credit growth posted 2.4%, led by revolving (3.4%; non-revolving has been steady at 2% for several months). With the economy growing by well above these levels in nominal terms, this still means that consumers are deleveraging, with total credit as a % of GDP set to post continued 12+ year lows, albeit largely led by non-revolving as opposed to revolving.
Feb-06 20:16EM Credit Macro
Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jan2026_With_Analysts_22448bf33a.pdf This update of our January 23 Fed preview includes analyst expectations - starting page 26 January 2026 FOMC Analyst Views: See You In March None of the 31 analysts' whose previews MNI read expected a Fed rate cut at the January FOMC meeting. * Statement: Most analysts saw the description of economic conditions as largely "marked to market" at the January meeting rather than changed substantively, with the description of "moderate" growth upgraded slightly. * More substantively, some analysts saw tweaks to the description of the balance of risks, potentially including the previous editions' note that risks to employment had risen in recent months. * There were almost no expectations that forward rate guidance would be changed but JPMorgan sees the removal of the word "additional" in the sentence "In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate" * Dissents: All analysts who expressed an opinion said that it was likely/certain that Gov Miran would again dissent in a dovish direction. Several speculated he could be joined by Gov Bowman and/or Gov Waller, in descending order of probability, * Future action: The MNI analyst median for expected 2026 cuts is 50bp, with a range from zero to 125bp. * The median analyst still sees the next cut coming in March, though several pushed back their easing views to later in the year after the December nonfarm payrolls data released earlier this month. * Several analysts identified June as a logical point of resumption for rate cuts as it would/could reflect the first post-FOMC meeting with a new Fed Chair.
January 26, 2026 21:59Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jan2026_ffe579f7da.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * The FOMC's January meeting appears poised to deliver a neutral hold, with heated debate continuing about the appropriate pace of easing over the coming year. * Divisions within the FOMC over the way forward are unlikely to have narrowed much since the December cut. The center of the Committee is likely to hold sway in maintaining an easing bias, albeit with no rush to make the next move now that rates have been brought down to within plausible estimated ranges of neutral policy. * If anything, the Committee may be even more patient now than it was 6 weeks ago. * Recent data have done little on net to affirm the case for another near-term cut, with the unemployment rate steadying and economic activity proving more resilient than expected. * With government shutdown-related distortions failing to clarify the overall picture, Chair Powell is likely to repeat his message from the December meeting that the FOMC is "well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves", with plenty of data to consider before the next decision in March. * The new Statement is likely to see only limited changes, but should acknowledge both reduced near-term concerns over the labor market as well as the above-expected economic activity since the last meeting. It will maintain the rather vague forward guidance adopted in December that the "extent and timing" of future easing will depend on the data. * That would likely be taken in stride by rate markets which price only around a 3% implied probability of a 4th consecutive 25bp cut, with the next easing expected only by July.
January 23, 2026 22:15Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Dec2025_With_Analysts_4d5a318a2b.pdf * The FOMC is expected to look through the data fog and deliver a "hawkish cut" on December 10, with a third consecutive 25bp reduction in the Fed funds rate range to 3.50-3.75%. * While a December cut is over 90% priced, a follow-up cut in January is seen as having under 30% probability, and the next easing is only fully priced by next June. * There will be the usual attention on the Summary of Economic Projections including the Dot Plot, but more attention than usual on the Statement to see how resolutely the easing bias remains. * Forward guidance is likely to be amended to reflect a more patient stance on cuts. As such the market reaction to the meeting could hinge on how Chair Powell portrays the burden of proof for the next cut. * Powell will highlight that the Committee is increasingly reluctant to ease further without additional evidence of labor market deterioration. But by the same token, he could express that's not an insurmountable obstacle, and a follow-up easing is possible in the event of incoming data before end-January. * The lack of major data since the September projections round portends only limited changes to the macro and rate forecasts. None of the end-year rate dot medians are likely to change, implying 25bp cuts in each of 2026 and 2027.
December 08, 2025 22:40The FOMC is unanimously expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25bp at the October meeting, per 31 previews seen by MNI.
October 27, 2025 21:36
