Real time insight of EM credit markets
EM Credit Weekly
Credit Analysis
EM secondary market spreads widened 1bp. The primary market was on hold across CEEMEA and LATAM while Asia supply was
December 12, 2025 14:58Last Week Credit Analysis
Telefonica Moviles Chile Sale Options
December 10, 2025 13:37EM Credit Update
POLITICAL RISK: US Hits Russia & Venezuela w/New Sanctions: The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has published its latest list of sanctions on entities, individuals, and vessels relating to both the war in Ukraine and the political situation in Venezuela. * Russia - Press Release : https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2777- : Hydrocarbon majors Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas have both been hit. An earlier report : https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/new-us-sanctions-russian-tankers-hit- oil-supplies-india-refining-sources-say-2025-01-10/from Reuters highlighted the industries and entities likely to be hit. Reuters: "The sanctions, imposed on Russia for its war in Ukraine, would cause severe disruption of Russian oil exports to its major buyers India and China,[...] Until now, hundreds of ships and many Russian oil traders have escaped the harshest U.S. sanctions as the Biden administration sought to strike a balance between the case for tighter measures and the risk of a global oil price rally." * US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: "With today's actions, we are ratcheting up the sanctions risk associated with Russia's oil trade, including shipping and financial facilitation in support of Russia's oil exports." * Venezuela - Press Release: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2778 - : Senior figures including the head of state-owned oil firm PDVSA, the transport minister, and head of the state-owned airline have all been placed under sanctions. The announcement comes in the wake of President Nicolas Maduro being sworn in for a third time earlier today. The detention of opposition figurehead Maria Corina Machado on 9 Jan has raised concerns of a further crackdown on the opposition. Tighter sanctions are a very probable scenario once President-elect Donald Trump takes office. VENZ 9.25% 2027, $17.08, -.16
Jan-10 16:02Global liquid EM sovereign bonds both high grade and high yield were generally down .75 to 1 point post the US labor report surprise. Names like SOAF and KSA in the long end were down more than a point and .75 point in the belly while TURKEY, REPHUN and ARGENT were better behaved down .25 - .75 points. In Latam, recently issued Codelco 10yr bonds were .30 lower than new issue pricing while new Mex 10s/30s were down .65 and .90 respectively and new Chile 12 yr fell .60 from issuance with almost all of those losses from new issue coming from today's sell off. The new YPF 9 yr traded lower but unchanged from issuance, giving up gains from two days ago. The headline payroll number of +256k vs 160k expected and 4.1% vs 4.2% from the household survey triggered an immediate selloff in 10 year Treasuries of point and a point in the long end with liquid EM adjusting quickly while off the run high yield corporate bonds re-priced slower. Treasuries recovered somewhat, only down point 10y and longer, but EM bonds have generally not bounced back.
Jan-10 15:07* Bunds are closing 3-7bp wider with 2y/10y yields at 2%/2.11%. The bias was higher through the session and closing at the wides, with rate cut bets being pared back. * IG closes -3bp with beta compression, top performers up to 15 tighter. * SXXP/SPX are +0.3%/-0.1% at 519pts/6079pts. IG's biggest movers include Worldline SA/France (+5%), Forvia SE (+5%), Canadian Imperial Bank of Comm (+5%), Safran SA (-7%), Toronto-Dominion Bank (-6%). * In primary deals from NIBCAP, PUPRIN and EUROB priced. * Main/XO close -1.4bp/-4bp at 53.9bp/292bp.
Dec-05 16:06EM CREDIT UPDATE: This Is A Test Bullet This is a test bullet, please ignore.
Dec-04 08:20EM Credit Bullets
"*MOZAMBIQUE SIGNS 5-YEAR $1.8B HEALTH FUNDING AGREEMENT WITH US" - BBG * Neutral read for credit sentiment. This latest announcement is part of the on-going health cooperation effort between the two countries. A positive development. * For context, Mozambique's financial position remains under pressure following the conclusion of the recent IMF visit. The possibility of reaching a new IMF deal is something to watch out for early in '26.
Dec-16 12:03(BTGPBZ; Ba1/BB/BBpos) "*BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK APPROVES BTG PACTUAL'S CAPITAL INCREASE" - BBG
Dec-16 11:06---------------------------------------------------------------------- CEEMEA EM Credit Market Wrap Source: MNI, Bloomberg Finance LP (*CBBT/BGN) Metrics Level DoD 5yr UST 3.72% -0bp 10yr UST 4.17% +0bp 5s-10s UST 45.0 +0bp WTI Crude 55.7 -1.1 Gold 4281 -24.3 Copper 527.0 -1.3% iShares EM IOPV 96.3 0.2% FX Level DoD USDZAR 16.79 -0.00 USDTRY 42.71 +0.01 EURHUF 384.8 +0.10 EURPLN 4.22 -0.00 EURCZK 24.34 +0.01 Sov bonds* Z-Sprd DoD KAZAKS 4.714 04/09/35 117bp +1bp POLAND 5 3/8 02/12/35 116bp -0bp REPHUN 6 09/26/35 180bp -1bp UZBEK 6.9 02/28/32 197bp -1bp ROMANI 6 5/8 05/16/36 235bp -2bp TURKEY 6.95 09/16/35 280bp -2bp UKRAIN 4 1/2 02/01/35 1003bp -32bp ADGB 4 1/4 10/02/35 64bp -1bp QATAR 4 7/8 02/27/35 49bp -0bp KSA 5 5/8 01/13/35 108bp +0bp KSA 4 7/8 09/09/35 Sukuk 104bp -0bp OMAN 7 3/8 10/28/32 117bp +1bp ISRAEL 5 5/8 02/19/35 133bp -1bp BHRAIN 7 1/2 02/12/36 258bp +2bp MOROC 6 1/2 09/08/33 151bp -0bp SOAF 7.1 11/19/36 238bp -0bp RWANDA 5 1/2 08/09/31 358bp +1bp IVYCST 8.075 04/01/36 344bp -2bp BENIN 8 3/8 01/23/41 393bp -1bp EGYPT 7.3 09/30/33 347bp +1bp ZAMBIN 5 3/4 06/30/33 337bp +3bp NGERIA 8.6308 01/13/36 376bp -1bp GHANA 5 07/03/35 370bp +2bp KENINT 9 1/2 03/05/36 498bp -1bp ANGOL 9 7/8 10/15/35 614bp -0bp MOZAM 9 09/15/31 1095bp +8bp SENEGL 6 1/4 05/23/33 1443bp -6bp Corp bonds* Z-Sprd DoD ESKOM 8.45 08/10/28 205bp -0bp SASOL 8 3/4 05/03/29 479bp +1bp GFISJ 5.854 05/13/32 143bp -0bp ANGSJ 3 3/4 10/01/30 128bp +2bp OCPMR 6 3/4 05/02/34 187bp +0bp AFRCEL 10 1/2 10/23/29 735bp -5bp AZURGY 8 1/8 01/23/30 437bp +1bp BVTSJ 6.2 09/17/32 235bp -0bp EDVLN 7 05/28/30 250bp +1bp FMCN 8 03/01/33 285bp -0bp HLSTWR 7 1/2 06/04/29 253bp +0bp IHS 8 1/4 11/29/31 351bp -1bp IVN 7 7/8 01/23/30 341bp -0bp SEPLLN 9 1/8 03/21/30 457bp +1bp SGLSJ 4 1/2 11/16/29 272bp +3bp ACKAF 8 1/2 09/25/28 280bp +0bp AEFES 3 3/8 06/29/28 308bp +2bp SISETI 8 5/8 05/02/32 393bp +1bp TCELLT 7.45 01/24/30 257bp -1bp TURKTI 7 3/8 05/20/29 258bp -3bp ULKER 7 7/8 07/08/31 303bp -3bp PKNPW 6 01/30/35 152bp -0bp ROMGAZ 4 3/4 10/07/29 154bp +1bp MVMHU 6 1/2 03/13/31 170bp +0bp MLGPW 6 1/8 10/15/29 220bp +1bp JSCKSP 6 1/4 03/26/30 219bp +5bp NAVOIM 6.95 10/17/31 211bp +1bp SLKRDH 7 1/2 09/15/30 387bp +0bp ARAGVI 11 1/8 11/20/29 787bp +2bp METINV 7 3/4 10/17/29 1344bp -4bp ARAMCO 5 3/8 06/02/35 122bp +0bp MAADEN 5 1/4 02/13/30 107bp -1bp SABIC 2.15 09/14/30 77bp +0bp SECO 5.225 02/18/30 112bp -1bp STCAB 3.89 05/13/29 73bp +1bp ABDPOC 2 1/2 05/06/31 101bp +0bp ADNOCM 4 1/2 09/11/34 95bp +0bp ALDAR 5 1/4 03/25/35 128bp -0bp DAMACR 7 08/26/28 273bp +1bp ETISLT 0 7/8 05/17/33 53bp +2bp EMAAR 3.7 07/06/31 92bp -1bp MASDAR 5 1/4 07/25/34 107bp +0bp MUBAUH 5.294 06/04/34 93bp -0bp TABRED 5.279 03/05/30 106bp +0bp TAQAUH 4 3/8 10/09/31 84bp +0bp DUBAEE 3 3/8 03/20/28 124bp +2bp QPETRO 2 1/4 07/12/31 77bp -0bp QTELQD 4 5/8 10/10/34 86bp -1bp BEXBAH 6 1/4 01/29/35 205bp +0bp
Dec-16 10:36(QPETRO; Aa2/AA/AA) * Neutral read for credit sentiment. Sale and purchase agreement for 70m cf p.a. of Helium up to 15 years (source: Bloomberg).
Dec-16 10:24EM Credit Macro
Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Dec2025_With_Analysts_4d5a318a2b.pdf * The FOMC is expected to look through the data fog and deliver a "hawkish cut" on December 10, with a third consecutive 25bp reduction in the Fed funds rate range to 3.50-3.75%. * While a December cut is over 90% priced, a follow-up cut in January is seen as having under 30% probability, and the next easing is only fully priced by next June. * There will be the usual attention on the Summary of Economic Projections including the Dot Plot, but more attention than usual on the Statement to see how resolutely the easing bias remains. * Forward guidance is likely to be amended to reflect a more patient stance on cuts. As such the market reaction to the meeting could hinge on how Chair Powell portrays the burden of proof for the next cut. * Powell will highlight that the Committee is increasingly reluctant to ease further without additional evidence of labor market deterioration. But by the same token, he could express that's not an insurmountable obstacle, and a follow-up easing is possible in the event of incoming data before end-January. * The lack of major data since the September projections round portends only limited changes to the macro and rate forecasts. None of the end-year rate dot medians are likely to change, implying 25bp cuts in each of 2026 and 2027.
December 08, 2025 22:40The FOMC is unanimously expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25bp at the October meeting, per 31 previews seen by MNI.
October 27, 2025 21:36The Federal Reserve is overwhelmingly expected to cut the funds rate by 25bp for a 2nd consecutive meeting.
October 24, 2025 21:05All but 2 analysts expect a 25bp cut at the September FOMC.
September 15, 2025 16:52
