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Download Full Report Here: : https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Oil_Weekly_U_S_India_Trade_Deal_Remains_Fragil e_68b0c7a6e9.pdf Executive Summary: * U.S./India Trade Deal Remains Fragile: Comments by U.S./Indian officials suggested a trade deal was nearing on a drop in Russian oil flows, but U.S. comments on Wednesday suggest there is more work to do. Regardless of its near-term outcome, Russian oil flows are losing an outlet. * Oil Markets: Crude prices are holding onto gains and near the highest since Sep. as the market monitors geopolitical risks in Iran, a slow recovery in resumption of Kazakhstan supply, and cold weather in the US. Diesel cracks are near the highest since November as US refineries face disruption and with the surge in heating demand. * Analyst Views: See oil market views and outlooks from key analyst names
Jan-28 16:33Download Full Report Here:: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Oil_Weekly_Sanctioned_Barrels_Building_563652b b89.pdf Executive Summary: * Sanctioned Barrels Building: Under increased scrutiny by the Trump administration, sanctioned oil barrels face a host of difficulties placing into the market in early 2026 as floating levels surge. * Oil Markets: Brent crude front month has bounced within the $63.3 to $65.15/bbl range since pricing out some Iranian risk sentiment on Jan. 14. Near term Kazakhstan supply concerns have provided support while geopolitical uncertainty remains in focus. Crack spreads have been rising while the market watches for any disruption ahead of the EU ban on products made from Russian oil on Jan. 21.
Jan-21 16:38Download Full Document Here:: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Oil_Weekly_Geopolitical_Switch_76057a1c28.pdf Executive Summary: * Geopolitical Switch: Venezuela grabbed the headlines last week for oil markets, but escalations in Iran are now at the forefront. Oil markets are trying to price in a geopolitical risk premium if the situation escalates while Trump's threats mount. * Oil Markets: Crude prices have rallied amid supply risk from Iran and disruption to CPC exports which offset signs of returning Venezuela exports and market oversupply expectations. US diesel cracks have regained some ground after falling to the lowest since August on Jan. 7. Gasoline cracks have softened again amid the post-holiday lull in demand after firming slightly last week. * Analyst Views: See oil market views and outlooks from key analyst names
Jan-14 16:05Download Full Report Here:: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Oil_Weekly_Venezuelan_Uncertainty_in_Focus_f27 8c1553e.pdf Executive Summary: * Venezuelan Uncertainty in Focus: Venezuela oil flows look set for significant redirection as US refiners win and Chinese refiners lose in the short term. Washington remains intent on enforcing the blockade while US oil companies show clear hesitance towards costly and risky development plans. * Oil Markets: Brent crude front month has bounced between $59.75/bbl and $62.3/bbl in the last week with geopolitical risks in Venezuela, Russia and Iran set against supply/demand fundamentals. Gasoline crack spreads have found some support this week, but diesel spreads remain weak. * Analyst Views: See oil market views and outlooks from key analyst names
Jan-07 15:58Research
GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Political Events Calendar 2026 Download Full Calendar Here: {https://media.marketnews.com/MNIPOLITICALRISK_Political_Event_Calendar2026_693 74466c3.pdf} (MNI) London - In our Political Risk calendar for 2026, we include details on the major political events scheduled to take place in developed and emerging markets over the course of the next 12 months. We only include those events that have a set date or period in which they will take place. The known dates outlined in the table below, combined with unconfirmed but expected events and the ever-present prospect of 'black swan' events, will ensure that political risks continue to have a significant impact on financial, commodity and credit markets through 2026.
Dec-31 15:10Download Full Report Here : https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Research_What_US_Venezuela_Tensions_Could_Mean _for_Oil_fe7b34ea09.pdf Executive Summary: * A rapid US military build-up in the Caribbean raises the prospect of regime change in Venezuela. * Any shift in power - negotiated or military - could reshape Venezuela's oil supply. * A negotiated exit remains the base case, but limited US strikes are now a plausible near-term trigger for disruption. * Download Full Report Here : https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Research_What_US_Venezuela_Tensions_Could_Me an_for_Oil_fe7b34ea09.pdf
Dec-04 20:52Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_2025_11_LNG_Risks_with_Russia_Ukraine_Peace_De al_b34e12ea05.pdf Executive Summary * The 28-point peace plan to end the Russia-Ukraine War has been launched by the US, with Trump setting a Nov. 27 deadline. * While there is no guarantee that it will end the war, it could have wide implications for energy markets. * The plan gives no guarantees for sanctions relief; however, Russia will likely push for an easing of restrictions on Arctic LNG 2. * US LNG demand could face lower utilization rates and delayed facility FID's, but impacts are likely to be limited in the very near term.
Nov-21 19:50See Summaries here: MNI_Major US LNG Exporters Q3 Guidance.pdf: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Major_US_LNG_Exporters_Q3_Guidance_5bcece3288. pdf This quarter saw the three major US LNG exporters delivering roughly 309 cargoes with steady growth in the global LNG market. * Cheniere maintained steady output across Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi while advancing CCL Stage 3 and preparing for future expansions. * Venture Global posted the fastest growth, exporting a record 100 cargoes and driving most of the new global LNG capacity added this year, while progressing Plaquemines and CP2 despite ongoing arbitration disputes. * Sempra focused less on current exports in its earnings call and more on construction progress at Port Arthur Phases 1 and 2 and ECA LNG, reflecting its broader strategic pivot toward utility investments after selling 45% of its LNG arm to KKR.
Nov-18 16:48Natgas & LNG Analysis
Download Full Report Here: : https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Gas_Weekly_Arctic_Blast_Rallies_Natgas_530d962 55e.pdf Executive Summary: * European Gas Benchmarks reached 10-month highs as cold weather impacted US LNG feedgas. * Asia's LNG market joined the global surge amid colder weather and cargo competition. * In the Middle East & Africa, Israel's upstream gas sector is set for a landmark year in 2026. * Henry Hub has seen a significant rally in the past week due to Arctic storms. * In the Americas, Trinidad will remove one of its liquefaction trains at Atlantic LNG from service.
Jan-28 14:25Download Full Report Here:: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Gas_Weekly_Cold_Weather_Jolts_Global_Gas_Price s_1f8d013535.pdf Executive Summary: * European Gas Benchmarks rallied to the highest since June 2025 on cold weather forecasts for 2H Jan. * Asia's LNG market rose to a six-week high on colder weather. * In the Middle East & Africa, Chevron has approved an FID to expand Israel's Leviathan field. * Henry Hub surges higher with cold weather extending into February and adding to a risk of shut-ins. * In the Americas, Colombia is looking at the possibility of importing Venezuelan gas.
Jan-21 12:35Download Full Report Here:: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Gas_Weekly_TTF_Rallies_While_Asia_Remains_Dorm ant_cc2bdb080f.pdf Executive Summary: * European Gas Benchmarks rally on colder weather forecasts in Europe/Asia and amid Iran tensions. * Asia's LNG market continues to see tepid demand, although colder weather may spark a rebound. * In the Middle East & Africa, Aramco's spending in gas reserve development is matching upstream oil expenditure. * Henry Hub has been volatile amid mixed weather data. * In the Americas, Colombia is seeking access to lower cost Venezuelan natgas.
Jan-14 13:31Download Full Report Here:: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Gas_Weekly_Weather_Risks_Add_to_European_Gas_V olatility_1ed1b0e50e.pdf Executive Summary: * European Gas Benchmarks have been volatile, weighing strong LNG supplies against cold winter weather. * Asia's LNG market remains under pressure with Japan and China on the sidelines. * In the Middle East & Africa, Egypt signed a MOU with Qatar aimed at boosting LNG supplies. * Henry Hub continues to face pressure on warmer weather across much of the Lower 48. * In the Americas, Venezuela has the potential to impact global LNG markets.
Jan-07 16:57Refinery Maintenance
Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Ukrainian_Strike_Tracker_Jan_27_9c3d1a5d59.pdf Executive Summary * Russia's crude processing volumes averaged 5.41m b/d across Jan. 15-21 as the intensity of drone attacks diminished, according to Bloomberg. * Tuapse and Novoshakhtinsk remain offline, while Ilsky boosted runs to 100k b/d * The tables show reported Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure since October. Given the frequency of attempted strikes, the list may not be exhaustive. * Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Ukrainian_Strike_Tracker_Jan_27_9c3d1a5d59.p df
Jan-27 17:13Download Full Document Here:: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_MNI_U_S_Refinery_Maintenance_Jan_2026_956159ea cf.pdf See below highlights of U.S. refinery maintenance and operations through January. Most recent entries related to the extreme cold weather
Jan-27 12:25Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Ukrainian_Strike_Tracker_Jan_20_2b7adddef3.pdf Executive Summary: * Russia's crude processing volumes averaged 5.3m b/d in the first two weeks of January, according to Bloomberg. * Tuapse and Novoshakhtinsk halted operations, while Lukoil's Volgograd reduced runs. * The tables show reported Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure since October. Given the frequency of attempted strikes, the list may not be exhaustive: * Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Ukrainian_Strike_Tracker_Jan_20_2b7adddef3.p df
Jan-20 16:21Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Ukrainian_Strike_Tracker_Jan_15_23f48ea6fc.pdf Executive Summary: * Russia's crude processing volumes averaged 5.6m b/d towards the end of December, Bloomberg reported. * The tables show reported Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure since October. Given the frequency of attempted strikes, the list may not be exhaustive. * Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Ukrainian_Strike_Tracker_Jan_15_23f48ea6fc.p df
Jan-15 14:03Political Drivers For Energy
Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Key_Political_Drivers_of_Energy_Markets_Jan_26_Feb _1_db97724d72.pdf Executive Summary: * The first trilateral Russia-Ukraine-US meeting concluded in the UAE over the weekend. * The US are moving military assets to the Middle East in a warning to Iran. * Trump resumed tariff threats against Canada over Ottawa's improving ties with Beijing. * Venezuela is set to pass its hydrocarbon law reform, but significant hurdles remain for its oil industry. * Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Key_Political_Drivers_of_Energy_Markets_Jan_26_F eb_1_db97724d72.pdf
Jan-26 13:34Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Political_Drivers_of_Energy_Markets_Jan_19_25_ ff7e8d7e66.pdf Executive Summary: * The immediate risks to energy markets from the Iran crisis appear to have subsided, but the underlying causes of the protests remain. * Venezuela's government appears to be consolidating domestic control while cooperating with the U.S. * Trump's rhetoric over Greenland is reviving tariff concerns as Europe must consider risks from U.S. LNG overdependence * Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Political_Drivers_of_Energy_Markets_Jan_19_2 5_ff7e8d7e66.pdf
Jan-19 11:59Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Political_Drivers_of_Energy_Markets_Jan_12_18_ 5dc3657df2.pdf Executive Summary: * Protests rage across Iran into their third week, shaking regime stability and threatening disruptions to its crucial oil supplies. * As the US floats lifting sanctions on Venezuela, long-term stability will be key to attract investment * There is renewed talk of US-India trade deal negotiations * Current risks are seeing key black-market supplies to China face pressure, as the US diverts Venezuelan barrels and Iran moves to the brink. * Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Political_Drivers_of_Energy_Markets_Jan_12_1 8_5dc3657df2.pdf
Jan-12 13:38Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Political_Drivers_for_Energy_Markets_Dec_22_28 _b95d0ef78d.pdf Executive Summary: * Negotiators have called Ukraine peace talks productive, but the mood music in Moscow is key to watch * The US has seized more tankers hauling Venezuelan oil as it ramps up pressure on Maduro. * Israel is to discuss potential options for attacking Iran with Trump * Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Political_Drivers_for_Energy_Markets_Dec_22_ 28_b95d0ef78d.pdf
Dec-22 13:21Commodities Research
Download Full Report: https://media.marketnews.com/US_LNG_Weekly_2026_01_30_5053b3030b.pdf US LNG feedgas swung from 10.4 Bcf/d during Winter Storm Fern and recovered to over 17.6 Bcf/d four days later. The LNG complex showed significant flexibility as Gulf Coast prices hit record highs to keep natural gas in the domestic market. * Winter Storm Gianna is heading to the Atlantic Seaboard this weekend, which may lead to additional LNG turndowns as temperatures are expected to hit record lows and have a duration not seen in decades. Freeport LNG stated earlier this week they may consider rescheduling long-term contract cargos because of the storm. * US feedgas is down 0.3 Bcf/d today, driven by a 0.5 Bcf/d overnight decline at Sabine Pass which is being offset by a 0.5 Bcf/d overnight increase at Freeport. * Elba Island has been importing gas for the last week, importing 1.2 Bcf/d on the 26th. Imports declined slightly to 0.2 Bcf/d as the impact of Winter Storm Fern dissipated, but they have ramped back up today to 0.7 Bcf/d as Winter Storm Gianna moves to the Atlantic Seaboard. * Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage 3 both made regulatory and commissioning progress this week. Chevron guided that Golden Pass train 1 will make first LNG in March, a slight delay from the Qatar Energy guidance at the end of last year for February. Corpus Christi stage 3 is moving into the commissioning phase for train 5, and train 4 is expected to be substantially complete in Cheniere's earnings next month.
January 30, 2026 15:54Download Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_LNG_Weekly_2026_01_16_a794fb75bc.pdf MNI estimates US LNG feedgas at 18.9 Bcf/d today, up over 2.3 Bcf/d as facilities recover from planned and unplanned maintenance this week. Volumes remain ~0.4 Bcf/d below the all-time peak. * Corpus Christi feedgas has recovered to 2.4 Bcf/d today after maintenance on Corpus Christi pipeline was completed on Wednesday and Thursday. The next round of planned maintenance on the pipeline is scheduled for March 3rd and 4th. * Plaquemines demand increased nearly 0.6 Bcf/d overnight to reach 4.4 Bcf/d. Today's feedgas level is just 36 MMcf/d below the all-time peak set back in early December. * Cameron and Sabine are reporting slight decreases in feedgas demand, down 20 MMcf/d and 69 MMcf/d, respectively. Creole Trail pipeline, which serves Sabine Pass, posted unplanned maintenance at the Gillis compressor station on Wednesday, but it was completed same day. Creole Trail isn't scheduled for any more maintenance until mid-March. * Cove Point reported unplanned maintenance at the Pleasant Valley compressor station on Wednesday, and repairs are ongoing. There was a small feedgas impact to the facility, falling ~150 MMcf/d, as the key delivery points flowed as normal. The latest notice from BHE states secondary path and IT deliveries to Cove Point delivery locations will not be scheduled.
January 16, 2026 14:19Download Full Report: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_2026_01_VZ_v_CAN_Battle_of_the_Heavy_Weights_c d02159b5b.pdf Fundamental analysis on the United States heavy crude market and the risk to Canadian imports following the latest Venezuelan market developments. Executive Summary * Guidance on Venezuelan crude reentering the market remains unknown, but speculation remains rampant. * While the market focus has been on recent regulations, the similarity between Canadian and Venezuelan crude grades allowed Canada to outpace Venezuelan imports beginning in the early 2000's. * Fundamentals suggest there is a path for Canadian crude to continue to be the import of choice, due to its steep pricing discount at the Gulf.
January 14, 2026 13:18Download US LNG Weekly: https://media.marketnews.com/US_LNG_Weekly_2026_01_09_8533ce1ae5.pdf MNI estimates US feedgas demand averaged 18.3 Bcf/d this week, down 0.4 Bcf/d from last week's average. Feedgas hit its historical peak of 19.1 Bc/d on December 5th and was close to hitting that level on January 4th but was unable to sustain the higher level. * European weather was cooler this week, which was supportive of US LNG on the water. For the remainder of the winter, large storage withdrawals over the previous few weeks may lend additional support for European LNG demand. * Corpus Christi reported lower volumes at the start of the week as planned maintenance occurred upstream of the facility on Corpus Christi pipeline. More maintenance at the Sinton compressor station will occur on Wednesday January 14th and Thursday January 15th, with 1.6 Bcf/d and 0.9 Bcf/d transport impact expected respectively. * For Sabine, Creole Trail's latest maintenance schedule released this week shows planned maintenance in Mid-March but no planned outages before then. * Corpus Christi and Sabine Pass are showing below normal feedgas demand for this time of year, while all other LNG facilities are largely in line with their historical normal.
January 09, 2026 14:04Carbon Market Research
Download Full Report Here:: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Carbon_Monthly_Monitor_Nov_and_Dec_b3598b1dd4. pdf Executive Summary: * EU Automotive Package: The EU's 2035 combustion-engine ban faces growing pushback from member states and automakers, prompting a potential delay of the Commission's 10 December review. * UKA/EUA Dec25 Options Expiry: On the non-policy side, EUA Dec-25 options head into 10 December expiry with implied volatility inching up from record lows, skew turning more negative, and open interest thinning-highlighting steady volatility expectations but rising relative demand for downside protection. UKA Dec-25 options approach 10 December expiry with implied volatility at multi-month highs and a record put/call tilt, underscoring heightened demand for downside protection as overall open interest dwindles.
Nov-28 12:19Download Full Report Here:: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Power_Service_Market_Reaction_of_EU_Environmen t_Council_Meeting_e35e31ff69.pdf Executive Summary: * The European Environment Council on 5 November agreed on the 2040 Climate Target and the 2035 NDC, as well as the EU ETS2 delay by one year. * Reactions from market participants have been mixed especially on the delay of ETS2, with sharp criticism from pro-environmental groups, while some European parties are even pushing for further delays.
Nov-07 15:47Download Full Report Here:: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Carbon_Monthly_Review_and_Outlook_November_5e4 8328163.pdf Executive Summary: * EU Climate Target 2040/NDC 2035: The EU's Climate Target for 2040 and 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) are still in limbo with a vote scheduled to take place at the next EU Environment Council meeting on 4 November. The EU faces a ticking clock, with the 4 November meeting as the final opportunity to officially submit its NDC ahead of COP30.
Oct-30 15:57Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Carbon_Monthly_Policy_Monitor_e1dbaa0887.pdf: Executive Summary: * EU Climate Target 2040: The EU's 2040 climate target remains undecided following the postponement of a European Parliament vote on Ondrej Knotek's proposal to reject the target, originally scheduled for 23 September. Environment Commissioner Teresa Ribera has said the bloc aims to finalise the target "in the coming weeks." * EU 2035 NDC: The EU Environment Council has approved a statement of intent outlining its indicative 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) - a 66.25-72.5% GHG reduction vs 1990 levels. The final NDC is expected to be submitted ahead of COP30 in November.
Sep-29 13:03Commodities Macro
Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jan2026_With_Analysts_22448bf33a.pdf This update of our January 23 Fed preview includes analyst expectations - starting page 26 January 2026 FOMC Analyst Views: See You In March None of the 31 analysts' whose previews MNI read expected a Fed rate cut at the January FOMC meeting. * Statement: Most analysts saw the description of economic conditions as largely "marked to market" at the January meeting rather than changed substantively, with the description of "moderate" growth upgraded slightly. * More substantively, some analysts saw tweaks to the description of the balance of risks, potentially including the previous editions' note that risks to employment had risen in recent months. * There were almost no expectations that forward rate guidance would be changed but JPMorgan sees the removal of the word "additional" in the sentence "In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate" * Dissents: All analysts who expressed an opinion said that it was likely/certain that Gov Miran would again dissent in a dovish direction. Several speculated he could be joined by Gov Bowman and/or Gov Waller, in descending order of probability, * Future action: The MNI analyst median for expected 2026 cuts is 50bp, with a range from zero to 125bp. * The median analyst still sees the next cut coming in March, though several pushed back their easing views to later in the year after the December nonfarm payrolls data released earlier this month. * Several analysts identified June as a logical point of resumption for rate cuts as it would/could reflect the first post-FOMC meeting with a new Fed Chair.
January 26, 2026 21:59Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jan2026_ffe579f7da.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * The FOMC's January meeting appears poised to deliver a neutral hold, with heated debate continuing about the appropriate pace of easing over the coming year. * Divisions within the FOMC over the way forward are unlikely to have narrowed much since the December cut. The center of the Committee is likely to hold sway in maintaining an easing bias, albeit with no rush to make the next move now that rates have been brought down to within plausible estimated ranges of neutral policy. * If anything, the Committee may be even more patient now than it was 6 weeks ago. * Recent data have done little on net to affirm the case for another near-term cut, with the unemployment rate steadying and economic activity proving more resilient than expected. * With government shutdown-related distortions failing to clarify the overall picture, Chair Powell is likely to repeat his message from the December meeting that the FOMC is "well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves", with plenty of data to consider before the next decision in March. * The new Statement is likely to see only limited changes, but should acknowledge both reduced near-term concerns over the labor market as well as the above-expected economic activity since the last meeting. It will maintain the rather vague forward guidance adopted in December that the "extent and timing" of future easing will depend on the data. * That would likely be taken in stride by rate markets which price only around a 3% implied probability of a 4th consecutive 25bp cut, with the next easing expected only by July.
January 23, 2026 22:15Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Dec2025_With_Analysts_4d5a318a2b.pdf * The FOMC is expected to look through the data fog and deliver a "hawkish cut" on December 10, with a third consecutive 25bp reduction in the Fed funds rate range to 3.50-3.75%. * While a December cut is over 90% priced, a follow-up cut in January is seen as having under 30% probability, and the next easing is only fully priced by next June. * There will be the usual attention on the Summary of Economic Projections including the Dot Plot, but more attention than usual on the Statement to see how resolutely the easing bias remains. * Forward guidance is likely to be amended to reflect a more patient stance on cuts. As such the market reaction to the meeting could hinge on how Chair Powell portrays the burden of proof for the next cut. * Powell will highlight that the Committee is increasingly reluctant to ease further without additional evidence of labor market deterioration. But by the same token, he could express that's not an insurmountable obstacle, and a follow-up easing is possible in the event of incoming data before end-January. * The lack of major data since the September projections round portends only limited changes to the macro and rate forecasts. None of the end-year rate dot medians are likely to change, implying 25bp cuts in each of 2026 and 2027.
December 08, 2025 22:40The FOMC is unanimously expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25bp at the October meeting, per 31 previews seen by MNI.
October 27, 2025 21:36
