SWEDENN APR CPI +10.5% Y/Y (FCST +10.6%); MAR +10.6% Y/Y

SWEDEN APR CPIF +7.6% Y/Y (FCST +8.0%); MAR +8.0% Y/Y

SWEDEN APR CPIF EX. ENERGY +8.4% Y/Y (FCST +8.7%); MAR +8.9% Y/Y

• The Swedish inflation rate edged down in April by 0.1pp to +10.5% y/y, and CPIF (fixed interest rate inflation) slowed by 0.4pp to +7.6% y/y. Both readings were lower than consensus expectations which were for unchanged.
• Housing, transport (especially airfares), and holiday packages prices increased, offset by lower energy and food prices. Slowing food prices drove the bulk of the April deceleration in CPI, with food CPI falling for the first time since November 2021 (down -1.3% m/m) and decelerating from +19.7% y/y in March to +17.5% y/y in April.
• This largely underpinned CPIF excluding energy easing 0.5pp to +8.4% y/y, slowing for a second consecutive month.
• Despite showing positive signs of easing, Swedish inflation remains high and sticky. The Riksbank delivered the anticipated 50bp hike in April, with their numerical policy rate path peaks at 3.65%, implying a 60% probability of a 25bp hike in either June or September.