European LNG spot prices struggle to compete with oil-linked term contracts as the overarching bearish sentiment in crude oil contrasts with winter risks for gas supplies, Platts said.

• On current market dynamics, oil-linked contracts with a 13.5% upper bound slope (the most bullish scenario), spot prices carry a premium of $2.08/MMBtu over term volumes, the strongest level since Nov. 28.
• Outages and maintenance at key natgas and LNG facilities has buoyed some spot buying in Europe compared to 2023, although term contracts have risen on the year.
• Of the 69.95m mt of LNG imported in Europe in 2024 thus far, 57% were contractual volumes, 41% spot, and the rest unconfirmed. This compares to 71:29 contractual v spot in 2023.
• The bearish oil market is pressuring European gas markets, leading to expectations of tighter winter balances which could boost global LNG prices as competition for cargoes heats up.