ECB implied rates were broadly unchanged on today's ECB Executive Board speakers.
- OIS contracts price 87bps of rate cuts through the remainder of '24, with 20bps of easing showing through the June meeting.
- To recap, President Lagarde's speech focused on familiar matters covered by ECB speakers in recent weeks i.e. having a lot more data by the June meeting vs April.
- Lane and Schnabel's appearances were more academic, discussing the ECB's inflation forecasts and R*.
- Euribor futures are -3.0 to +1.0 through the blues at typing.
- The Fed decision at 1800GMT/1900CET provides the immediate macro risk event, while tomorrow's regional calendar is highlighted by the flash round of March PMI data.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Apr-24 | 3.901 | -0.7 |
| Jun-24 | 3.706 | -20.2 |
| Jul-24 | 3.564 | -34.4 |
| Sep-24 | 3.361 | -54.7 |
| Oct-24 | 3.210 | -69.8 |
| Dec-24 | 3.040 | -86.8 |
| Jan-25 | 2.927 | -98.1 |
| Mar-25 | 2.790 | -111.8 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg |
