NZD/USD is drawing some modest support from an upswing in New Zealand's 2-Year swap which printed new three-month highs at 4.44%.

  • The move in swap rate was driven by a revision to ANZ's RBNZ call. The bank now sees the OCR peak at 4.75% next year, having previously forecast a terminal rate of 4.0% by November.
  • Note that ANZ's call change comes after ASB nudged their terminal rate view higher. They said Thursday that the OCR will likely reach 4.25% next year as they added a 25bp February hike to their forecast.
  • The revision to ANZ's rate view inspired notable bear flattening in NZGB curve, with yields last seen 13.2-6.8bp higher, as 2-Year notes lead declines. The spread on 2-/10-Year NZGB yields has shrunk ~5.6bp thus far, reaching one-month narrows.
  • Spot NZD/USD is grinding away from cyclical lows printed at $0.5955 Friday morning, with familiar technical contours still in play. The rate last deals at $0.5978, up 12 pips on the day.
  • AUD/NZD has erased its earlier gains and last sits at NZ$1.1233, barely changed on the day. A dynamic pullback in Australia/New Zealand 2-Year swap spread created a drag on the spot rate.
  • The RBNZ will deliver its next (non-MPS) Monetary Policy Review on October 5.

NZD: Kiwi Gains As NZ Swaps Move Higher On ANZ Rate-Hike View Change

Last updated at:Sep-16 04:15By: Krzysztof Kruk
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NZD/USD is drawing some modest support from an upswing in New Zealand's 2-Year swap which printed new three-month highs at 4.44%.

  • The move in swap rate was driven by a revision to ANZ's RBNZ call. The bank now sees the OCR peak at 4.75% next year, having previously forecast a terminal rate of 4.0% by November.
  • Note that ANZ's call change comes after ASB nudged their terminal rate view higher. They said Thursday that the OCR will likely reach 4.25% next year as they added a 25bp February hike to their forecast.
  • The revision to ANZ's rate view inspired notable bear flattening in NZGB curve, with yields last seen 13.2-6.8bp higher, as 2-Year notes lead declines. The spread on 2-/10-Year NZGB yields has shrunk ~5.6bp thus far, reaching one-month narrows.
  • Spot NZD/USD is grinding away from cyclical lows printed at $0.5955 Friday morning, with familiar technical contours still in play. The rate last deals at $0.5978, up 12 pips on the day.
  • AUD/NZD has erased its earlier gains and last sits at NZ$1.1233, barely changed on the day. A dynamic pullback in Australia/New Zealand 2-Year swap spread created a drag on the spot rate.
  • The RBNZ will deliver its next (non-MPS) Monetary Policy Review on October 5.