April's JOLTS report was softer than expected, showing the lowest number of job openings since February 2021, at 8.059m vs 8.355m in March (downwardly revised from 8.488m). That compares to a survey median 8.350m and represents a 2-month drop of over 750k.
- The ratio of job openings to unemployed fell to 1.24 from 1.30 prior (rev from 1.32), the lowest since September 2021. That figure averaged 1.19 in 2019, pre-pandemic.
- With March's quits rates upwardly revised by 0.1pp, the overall rate has been remarkably steady at 2.2% for 6 consecutive months; private sector quits were 2.4% for a 2nd month (had been 2.3% Mar prior to release), and the 4th month in the past 5.
- Those remain notably lower than the pre-pandemic (2019) averages for quits of 2.33% (overall) and 2.59% (private).
- Construction and manufacturing sector quit rates notably jumped, with professional/business, and "other" services falling sharply.
- The hiring rate was steady at 3.6%/private 3.9%.
- Overall the drop in openings and steady rather than rising job churn is encouraging for the doves among the FOMC heading into next week's meeting and economic projections.
- But Friday's nonfarm payrolls release will be of greater importance, not least because it is a more recent read (May) on labor market dynamics.