In post-Tokyo trade on Friday, JGB futures were weaker, -13 compared to settlement levels. The local market was closed yesterday for a holiday. 

• Overnight, US tsys saw a strong rally ahead of today’s US Presidential Election.
• The so-called “Trump trade” (bear steepener) was unwound after a poll in Iowa, a typically reliable red state, gave Harris a 3-point lead. A late swing to Harris was also evident in other weekend polls. However, Polymarket still shows odds that Trump will win. Political polling in key swing states remains within the margin of error, leaving the race finely balanced.
• The US 10-year yield dropped 9bps to 4.29% while the 2-year finished 4bps lower.
• There was little adverse impact from the poor, but not surprisingly, 3-year auction. Risk off flows out of Wall Street also helped.
• Locally most analysts, including us, anticipate a 25bp rate hike to 0.50% in January. However, an earlier move in December remains possible if the yen weakens further amid diminishing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and a stronger US dollar. (See MNI BoJ Review here)
• Today, the local calendar will see Monetary Base data, ahead of the BoJ Minutes for the September meeting tomorrow.