A GOP decision to sever the central campaign financing of Ohio House nominee JR Majewski, for lying about military service in Afghanistan, has boosted Democrats chance of retaining control of the House in November's general election.

• Majewski is running against Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) in a seat which was widely tipped to be an straightforward Republican flip after Kaptur was redrawn in a Congressional district with strong Republican support.
• The House still leans Republican with 46 days until the midterms but Democrats have seen their chances of retaining the lower chamber gradually rise since July, with some analysts warning that the unpredictable electoral consequences of the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe vs Wade have proved difficult to evaluate with traditional polling techniques.
• If Reproductive Rights remains a central issue leading up to election day then Democrats may outperform expectations.

Figure 1: Chances of Controlling the House of Representatives (FiveThirtyEight)