Goldman’s expectations of high inflation pushing the FOMC to consider hiking at consecutive 2022 meetings was reinforced by the January meeting. So Goldman's sticking to their view of 4 hikes in 2022 for the moment, though see upside risks.

• “While Powell did not directly address hiking at consecutive meetings, he hinted at the possibility of a faster pace in three ways. First, he emphasized that the economy is in a very different place than when the FOMC hiked last cycle. Second, he acknowledged the uncertainty about the inflation outlook and said that monetary policy needs to be in a position to address different outcomes, including one in which inflation runs higher.
• “Third, he said that the FOMC would move “steadily” away from its current policy stance, avoiding the term “gradual” used last cycle.”
• Goldman notes that “gradual” is associated with 4 hikes per year (the last cycle), while “measured” would have been associated with 8 hikes per year (mid-2000s cycle). “Steadily”, says Goldman, means “at least once a quarter, but with the option to go faster”.
• One reason Goldman’s sticking with its 4 hike forecast is that the Fed pointing to hikes may tighten financial conditions that make it harder for the Fed to actually deliver on hikes.
• Goldman’s expectation for a July QT announcement was reaffirmed in light of Powell’s comments that discussions were expected to take at least two more meetings.