The IMF's October Fiscal Monitor (link) paints a fairly bleak outlook for developed market government finances over the rest of the decade.

• Advanced economy government balances (in this context, deficits) are seen narrowing from -5.2% of GDP on average in 2024, to -4.2% in 2024-29, but that's substantially larger than the -3.1% pre-pandemic (2012-19) average. That's in spite of primary balances consolidating from -2.7% in 2024 to -1.5%, the latter not far from the -1.0% pre-pandemic norm, because higher interest costs vs earlier years (1.5% of GDP in 2015-29 to 2.4% in 2024-29) will weigh heavily, particularly on the US outlook.
• The US's pre--pandemic average overall government balance was -5.1% of GDP, but that's seen rising to -6.7% in 2024-29 - France (-3.6% to -5.9%) and Germany (+0.9% to -1.1%) are other standouts in terms of expected deterioration.
• Average revenue as a % of GDP is set to remain at roughly 36% through end-2029 (46% for the eurozone, 35-36% for the G7 as a whole). While that's in line with pre-pandemic levels, expenditure is seen stubbornly above 40%, vs 38-39% pre-pandemic (49% for eurozone vs 47-48% pre-2020, 41% for the G7 vs 39% pre-2020).
• The upshot: average gross gov't debt rose from 102% of GDP in 2019, to 122% in 2020, back to 109% in 2023-24 - but that's the end of the improvement, with the trajectory putting average 2029 debt at 114%. Net debt is lower (to 87% end-decade from 82% now) but follows a similar trajectory.
• Either way, as the teaser report released last week pointed out, globally, "Cumulative fiscal adjustment of 3.0–4.5 percent of GDP, on average, is needed to stabilize or reduce debt with high probability" - that is a major and likely unrealistic adjustment and "almost twice the size of past adjustments".
• IMF Directors were concerned that "mediocre medium‑term growth and rising debt trajectories increase the risk that the global economy will become entrenched in a low-growth, high-debt environment".