The latest reading of ECB excess liquidity reflects the settlements of the early TLTRO repayment on Nov 23, with a 1-day drop of E248.4bln (see chart).

• That's the largest fall since 2011, but it has only a limited impact on the overall level which at E4.42trn has only returned to late August 2022 levels.
• There's still E1.8trn in TLTROs outstanding, with the next voluntary early repayment settlement date on Dec 21 and which is tentatively expected by analysts to bring excess liquidity down to about E4.0-4.1trn ahead of year-end.
• The next repayment amount will be known on Dec 9, and this will help shape the ECB's discussion around the balance sheet / QT outlook at the Dec 15 meeting.

Source: BBG, ECB, MNI