Download Full Report Here:
https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Preview_Jul2026_2d9d50c63b.pdf EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY * The Bank of Canada is firmly expected to announce on Wednesday that it
has held the overnight rate at 2.25% for a 6th consecutive meeting. Overall, the
market's slight bias toward the BOC's next move being a hike rather than a cut
is likely to remain intact. * Attention will be paid to the degree to which the
BOC sees the risks to its current "dilemma" as having abated in both directions
since mid-June, with oil prices lower and growth/employment appearing to be on
firmer ground than it was a few months ago. * However market pricing on net
hasn't really shifted, showing almost exactly the same as after the last meeting
in June: almost one full hike (23bp) priced by year-end, but not until December.
It's still a more hawkish outlook versus pre-US/Iran war when expectations were
for the next move to be a cut, if anything. * Analysts haven't substantially
changed their outlooks for BOC policy following since May, with the overwhelming
consensus being that there will be a hold through 2026 followed by 50bp in hikes
in 2027, a path less aggressive than portrayed by OIS markets.
Jul-13 22:13
