FOMC Meeting

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Speak_Oct2026_e1f036e54c.pdf Ahead of next week's Fed decision, we've published our summary of FOMC participant communications since the September FOMC meeting, including MNI's Hawk-Dove Matrix and a recap of the latest Beige Book and meeting minutes.

MNI previews the October Fed meeting.

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Oct2026_W_Analysts_89de9b60f9.pdf This update of our Oct 23 Fed preview includes analyst expectations - starting page 40 Oct 2026 FOMC Analyst Views: 25-50bp Further Hikes Eyed Almost all analysts whose Fed previews were reviewed by MNI (35 in total) expect the FOMC to hold rates steady in October - the exception is Bank of America's call for a 25bp hike. After the September meeting, at least 9 analysts had an October hike as their base case. No analysts think the Fed is yet done tightening, while BofA sees the most aggressive tightening (75bp total including October). * Statement: The overwhelming expectation is that there will be no major changes to the Statement, with some debate over how the sentence about a "timelier" return to 2% inflation will be changed amid a hold. * Attention here will mainly be on dissents in favor of a hike: most see 2 or 3 (Logan, Hammack, possibly Kashkari or Waller) though at least one analyst (BNP Paribas) sees another unanimous vote. * Press conference: Most expect another brief presser, with no forward guidance but a hawkish tone. The key question will be why the Fed decided to pause after hot September inflation. Many expect Warsh to answer that he focuses on trends rather than individual data points (BofA, Natixis, SocGen, UBS, Barclays). Several (UniCredit, BNP, TD) think he'll implicitly validate December pricing. * Others flag questions on financial conditions and AI-related market volatility (Citi, Barclays, Natixis, Deutsche) and a possible task force update (Goldman, Wells Fargo). * Future action: The median view is for 25bp of hikes with a final move in December this year before a hold through 2027, though it's a pretty even split between 25bp and 50bp further hikes. Most analysts who anticipate 2 more hikes see them coming quarterly (Dec, Mar) though Barclays and UBS see Dec and Jan. * A large minority has already begun forecasting cuts, beginning as soon as the middle of next year (Citi).

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Oct2026_a1f40613ff.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * The FOMC is expected to hold the target range at 3.75-4.00% (c.90% futures-implied) on Oct 28 with only limited changes to the Statement, though hawkish dissents in favor of a hike are likely. * Officials have signaled little urgency to follow September's hike at consecutive meetings, even though hotter September inflation data offer the latest evidence making the case for further tightening. * The debate is over timing and extent rather than direction, with the vast majority of Committee members eyeing at least one more hike. That sets up the communications to lean to a "hawkish hold". * Chair Warsh's description of policy restrictiveness may be key to the market reaction. Holding while maintaining that conditions aren't restrictive requires explaining how the Committee expects inflation to return to target in a timely fashion, a difficult message to convey without forward guidance. * As such we would expect a reprise of July and September's message on patience and trends over data points, alongside a reaffirmed commitment to the 2% target. We'll watch for how Warsh characterizes the latest inflation trends and for any signal, however faint, that December is live. MNI's preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday Oct 26