We have already noted that the current ECB market-implied rate path remains more aggressive than the once-per-quarter baseline held by at least several GC members.

• Technical analysis on Euribor contracts adds to this idea.
• ERH5 has respected it’s early August high so far, while late ’23/early ’24 highs have helped cap rallies further out the strip.

Fig. 1: Euribor Mar ’25 & Dec ’25 Contracts (ERH5 & ERZ5)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg