Gas consumption for electricity generation in the “European-5” — Italy, Belgium, Germany, France, and the UK — in the year to September saw the biggest seasonal volatility on record, driven primarily by a boom in solar generation and continued demand destruction according to BNEF.

• Winter demand in the gas-year 2022 -October 2022 to September 2023 - stood at 167mcm/d, whereas summer demand was at 126 mcm/d. The gap between the seasons was double the past average seasonal spread of 20 mcm/d.
• The spread between winter and summer gas consumption has increased due to the expansion of solar generation across Europe, while limiting electricity consumption has also proved a useful tool to keep gas demand down, both in winter and summer.
• The spread between summer and winter gas burn is expected to increase in the coming years. The continued growth of renewables, especially solar, will keep summer gas-to-power use subdued.
• BNEF modeling suggests the European-5 could add 16GW of solar by next summer. At the same time, the closing of nuclear and coal plants in parts of Europe will require gas to step in, leading to record power-sector gas use in winters. BNEF estimates the winter-summer gas consumption spread could grow to 69 mcm/d.