Gas storage in ‘Europe Perimeter’ (Northwest Europe, Italy and Austria) is expected to hit ‘tank tops’ at the end of September and two weeks earlier than previously forecast according to BNEF.

• Limited gas demand and healthy supply will support restocking in the summer after ending winter 2023/24 at a record-high 58% full. Inventories were 61% full in mid-April and only 30bcm below maximum capacity.
• The market however remains sensitive to geopolitical risks.
• Total gas demand in ‘Europe Perimeter’ remains roughly unchanged from the previous forecast with a moderate y/y recovery of 25mcm/d throughout May to Sept driven by industry and small consumers in the commercial sector.
• Gas for power generation is expected to decline slightly year-on-year with an eroding share of gas in the electricity mix.
• Europe’s LNG import estimates have been revised lower and forecast 23mcm/d lower y/y for summer but 19mcm/d higher y/y for winter. Stronger LNG uptake in China and South Korea offer downside supply risk.
• Storage could reach 43% full and above the five-year average at the end of March 25 assuming the weather is in line with the 10-year average.

Source: BNEF