The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service has published its detailed annual report regarding the war in Ukraine and broader eastern European security. EFIS: The use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine is "unlikely". EFIS: Russia still has the military capability to exert credible pressure in the Baltics; security risks in the region "significantly increased" in mid-to-long term."

• EFIS: "the large-scale exercise Zapad 23 [military exercises] may further strain the situation in the Baltic Sea region."
• EFIS: "Belarus has provided logistical and material support to Russia in the war against Ukraine, but the Belarusian Armed Forces have not yet intervened in the military operations in Ukraine and do not wish to do so in the future."
• Link to report (which has detailed views on Russia's foreign and domestic policy, as well as on China): https://raport.valisluureamet.ee/2023/en/