This morning also saw the release of Portuguese and Irish flash inflation for January. In Portugal, the headline HICP estimate rose to 2.6% Y/Y (vs 1.9% prior) after 4 consecutive months of deceleration prior. In Ireland, flash HICP was 2.7% Y/Y (vs 3.2% prior).

• There was no consensus for either set of data.

The acceleration of the Portuguese headline rate was a result of "price increases in electricity and the ending of the VAT exemption for several essential food items" according to the press release.

• As a result, NSA energy and processed/unprocessed food components turned positive on a sequential NSA monthly basis (after negative December prints), with the annual inflation rates also increasing.
• Core CPI (ex-energy and unprocessed foods) fell a touch to 2.46% Y/Y (vs 2.64% prior).
• Headline CPI was 2.34% Y/Y (vs 1.42% prior) and 0.05% M/M (vs -0.41% prior).
• Headline HICP was 2.6% Y/Y (vs 1.9% prior) and -0.1% M/M (vs -0.7% prior).
• Portugal had a 2.4% weight in the Eurozone HICP basket in 2023.

In Ireland, core CPI (ex-energy and unprocessed foods) reversed December's uptick to fall to 3.8% Y/Y (vs 4.3% prior). The fall in headline rate was once again aided by energy base effects, with energy inflation -0.8% M/M and -7.0% Y/Y (vs -6.4% prior).

• Ireland had a 1.5% weight in the Eurozone HICP basket in 2023.