Core EGB futures hold near intraday highs following the weaker-than-expected US ISM services reading, buoyed by the rally in Treasuries.
- Bund futures are +58 at 130.96 though remain well short of Monday’s highs, with the 50-day EMA at 131.69 providing first resistance.
- ECB implied rates have stuck broadly within this week’s ranges, with OIS now showing 41bps of easing through year-end (vs 39bps pre-ISM).
- Shorter-end Spanish and longer-end French supply headlines tomorrow’s calendar, with ECB’s June meeting accounts also released.
- A reminder that tomorrow’s July 4th US holiday will likely limit volumes/liquidity in the European afternoon. UK election voting opens, however minimal market impact is expected.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jul-24 | 3.654 | -0.8 |
| Sep-24 | 3.481 | -18.2 |
| Oct-24 | 3.416 | -24.6 |
| Dec-24 | 3.255 | -40.7 |
| Jan-25 | 3.179 | -48.3 |
| Mar-25 | 3.053 | -60.9 |
| Apr-25 | 2.980 | -68.2 |
| Jun-25 | 2.858 | -80.5 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. 2025 dates are estimated. | ||
