This afternoon has seen ’24 ECB implied rates move higher alongside core FI yields, but today’s ECB rhetoric has not been the primary driver.
- ECB-dated OIS prices 77bps of cuts through the remainder of ’24 (vs 80bps this morning), with 21bp showing through the June meeting.
- There were limited deviations from the status quo re: a likely first rate cut in June, but differences of opinion/a lack of commitment for the policy outlook beyond the June meeting.
- The hawkish-leaning Nagel, Simkus and Kazaks were non-committal beyond the idea of a June cut (as they have been in the recent past), while Villeroy reiterated that he was open to easing at each meeting after June.
- MNI sources flagged the divisions within the Governing Council surrounding future policy rate guidance earlier this month (see here).
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jun-24 | 3.696 | -21.3 |
| Jul-24 | 3.577 | -33.1 |
| Sep-24 | 3.400 | -50.8 |
| Oct-24 | 3.296 | -61.2 |
| Dec-24 | 3.139 | -76.9 |
| Jan-25 | 3.046 | -86.2 |
| Mar-25 | 2.928 | -98.1 |
| Apr-25 | 2.856 | -105.3 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. 2025 dates are estimated. |
