A new survey from Gallup has found that, “although Democrats continue to hold a formidable advantage over Republicans among non-Hispanic Black adults in the U.S., their current 47-point lead is the smallest Gallup has recorded in its polling, dating back to 1999.”

• Gallup continues: “Similarly, Democrats’ 12-point advantage among Hispanic adults in 2023 represents a new low in trends dating back to 2011, when Gallup began routinely interviewing in Spanish as well as English. Meanwhile, White adults have maintained a 14- to 17-point preference for the Republican Party in most years since 2014. The parties were closer to parity among this large segment of the electorate between 1999 and 2009.”
• The survey is the latest to suggest that President Biden may no longer be able to count on the two key Democrat-voting bloc for support in November's presidential election.
• Bloomberg reported more favourably for Biden after last week's South Carolina Presidential primary: "The first contest of 2024 with Joe Biden’s name on the ballot gave Democrats some tentative signs of strength among the Black voters crucial to his reelection campaign."

Figure 1: Net Democratic Leaned Party ID, by Race/Ethnicity

Source: Gallup