UK CBI MAR REPORTED SALES +1 (FCST -3); FEB +2

UK CBI APR EXPECTED SALES +9

• The UK CBI distributive trades survey for March recorded a resilient month of sales, judged by the survey to be "good" and only marginally below the February level.
• Sales expectations for April rebounded to positive at +9%, implying the first positive sales expectations since September '22.
• This follows the +1.2% m/m jump in retail sales national data in Friday's February data, which was underpinned by strong discount store and second-hand/auction house sales.
• The CBI report implies a larger chance of a positive March m/m retail print, which according to the ONS would only need to be stronger than -1.7% m/m in order for retail to be a positive contribution to Q1 GDP.
• Despite retail sales showing tentative signs of stabilising, persistently low consumer confidence, high inflation and mortgage rates will likely see consumer spending remain muted for the near future.

Source: CBI