For the first time since September 2015, the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP) have polled above the governing centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC). In the two latest opinion polls, the NDP led the LPC by 21.6% to 21.5% and 20% to 19% respectively. While these polls are essentially dead-heats, both within the margin of error, they will nevertheless carry weight amid a sustained period of instability for the Trudeau gov't. 

• In the two recent unsuccessful no-confidence votes against the gov't, the NDP has backed PM Justin Trudeau despite the collapse of the LPC-NDP confidence and supply agreement in September. There has been the view that, like the separatist Bloc Quebecois, the NDP can gain more policy concessions from a minority LPC gov't reliant on its votes than the majority Conservative Party of Canada gov't that polls indicate would come to power in a snap election.
• However, should the LPC's slump continue it could see the NDP re-evaluate the situation if it appeared likely that it would emerge as the second-largest party in an election. Becoming the main opposition would give the NDP a greater role in parliament, with more allotted queries at Question Period, and a more prominent national profile.
• The Bloc has already set the deadline of end-Oct for the gov't to agree to its legislative demands or risk losing its support in confidence votes (see 'CANADA: BQ Leader-Trudeau Gov't Remains 'Very Vulnerable', 1644BST  3 Oct).

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Mainstreet Research, Nanos Research, Abacus Data, EKOS, Leger, Angus Reid, Relay Strategies, Ipsos, Innovative Research, Research Co., Pallas Data, MNI