Core inflation should remain the focal point, with the average of the BoC’s preferred median and trim measures seen falling two tenths to 2.35% Y/Y (2.2 and 2.5% Y/Y respectively) after a surprisingly large decline to 2.55% in July having previously plateaued at 2.7% for three months.
The closely watched three-month rate could possibly ease from the 2.7% annualized in July but there aren’t many analyst estimates for this metric.
Note that the BoC in July published its forecast for core CPI since 2016, although it did reveal that its own, previously internal, forecast had been revised down from 3.0% to 2.7% for Q2.
It looks for core CPI at 2.5% in Q3, which suggests that a consensus print could open risk of another downward revision, albeit possibly more modest.
CANADA: Core CPI Could Start Tracking Below BoC Forecast
Last updated at:Sep-16 19:13By: Chris Harrison
Canada
Core inflation should remain the focal point, with the average of the BoC’s preferred median and trim measures seen falling two tenths to 2.35% Y/Y (2.2 and 2.5% Y/Y respectively) after a surprisingly large decline to 2.55% in July having previously plateaued at 2.7% for three months.
The closely watched three-month rate could possibly ease from the 2.7% annualized in July but there aren’t many analyst estimates for this metric.
Note that the BoC in July published its forecast for core CPI since 2016, although it did reveal that its own, previously internal, forecast had been revised down from 3.0% to 2.7% for Q2.
It looks for core CPI at 2.5% in Q3, which suggests that a consensus print could open risk of another downward revision, albeit possibly more modest.
