- CIBC see headline CPI inflation at a non-seasonally adjusted -0.4% M/M in September (0.0% sa), driven by further declines in gasoline prices, with the Y/Y decelerating to 1.7%.
- “High inventory levels in the retail space should keep goods prices under pressure, despite a modest pick up in spending recently. The last remaining source of inflationary pressure, shelter, should continue to decelerate
as mortgage interest payments rise at a slower pace.” - “The core measures of CPI-trim and CPI-median are likely to have risen by 0.2% on the month. However, due to base effects, this could result in a marginal bump up in the annual rate of the former.”
- “We continue to view other cores measures of inflation, such as CPI-X, as being better indicators of underlying price pressures and that is likely to continue running weaker than CPI-Trim and Median.”
- “With gasoline prices up modestly so far in October, inflation may reaccelerate slightly ahead and as a result September’s print could mark the low point in inflation for the year. However, we continue to believe that there is ample spare capacity within the Canadian economy so, unless growth recovers quicker than we think, inflation could fall further below the 2% target during certain points in 2025.”
CANADA: CIBC Prefer Other Core Measures To BoC’s Median And Trim Metrics
Last updated at:Oct-14 18:21By: Chris Harrison
Canada
- CIBC see headline CPI inflation at a non-seasonally adjusted -0.4% M/M in September (0.0% sa), driven by further declines in gasoline prices, with the Y/Y decelerating to 1.7%.
- “High inventory levels in the retail space should keep goods prices under pressure, despite a modest pick up in spending recently. The last remaining source of inflationary pressure, shelter, should continue to decelerate
as mortgage interest payments rise at a slower pace.” - “The core measures of CPI-trim and CPI-median are likely to have risen by 0.2% on the month. However, due to base effects, this could result in a marginal bump up in the annual rate of the former.”
- “We continue to view other cores measures of inflation, such as CPI-X, as being better indicators of underlying price pressures and that is likely to continue running weaker than CPI-Trim and Median.”
- “With gasoline prices up modestly so far in October, inflation may reaccelerate slightly ahead and as a result September’s print could mark the low point in inflation for the year. However, we continue to believe that there is ample spare capacity within the Canadian economy so, unless growth recovers quicker than we think, inflation could fall further below the 2% target during certain points in 2025.”
