In local morning trade, NZGBs are 4-6bps cheaper after a heavy session for US tsys in the lead-up to today’s key October CPI inflation data. It will be followed by PPI tomorrow. 

• From our October CPI preview today, sequential core CPI is seen coming in basically the same as prior (roughly 0.30%), with headline edging up (0.20% vs 0.18% September).
• Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari suggested it would take significant upside inflation surprises in the next two months to cause the Fed to deviate from cutting rates a third consecutive time at the next meeting.
• NZ net migration estimates show a net gain of 44,907 people in the year ended September 30—the lowest since January 2023. The gain follows a revised 52,199 increase in the year through July.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see REINZ House Sales and Food Prices.
• Swap rates are 3-5bps higher, with the belly outperforming.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 2-5bps firmer for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 87bps of easing is priced by February, with 52bps by year-end.
• Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$200mn of the 3.0% Apr-29 bond, NZ$250mn of the 4.5% May-35 bond and NZ$50mn of the 2.75% Apr-37 bond.