Data from betting markets shows the presidential race has tightened as former President Donald Trump finds surer ground on countering Vice President Kamala Harris, after several weeks of unfocused strategy.

• ElectionBettingOdds, a site that collates data from Betfair, Polymarket, Smarkets, and PredictIt, shows Harris slightly ahead 51.5%-46.6% but down from the close to 10% margin Harris enjoyed last week.
• The slight swing in betting markets suggests that Trump's recent pivot away from personal attacks on Harris to a focus on the economy may have strengthened his campaign.
• Yesterday, in a speech in Pennsylvania, Trump argued that a Harris plan to curb corporate “price gouging” amounted to price controls - a position that has gained traction in the conservative media.
• Trump also criticsed Harris for a U-turn on her opposition to fracking. An attack that could provide Trump a boost in key swing state Pennsylvania, one of the leading domestic producers of natural gas, if he can convince voters her position on fracking could flip again.
• At 15:00 ET 230:00 BST, Trump will give another speech today in Howell, Michigan on crime and safety - a perceived vulnerability for Democrats.

Figure 1: Presidential Election Winner

Source: Polymarket