Political betting markets have shown a shift away from the centre-right Conservatives amid PM Rishi Sunak's party losing seats across England in local elections on 4 May (see: https://marketnews.com/difficult-local-elections-f...). According to data from Smarkets, the Conservatives have an implied probability of 20% of winning the most seats at the next general election. This is down from 25% on 3 May ahead of the elections. Meanwhile, bettors give the main opposition centre-left Labour Party an 82% implied probability of winning the most seats, up from 78.1% on 3 May (the total sums to more than 100% due to bookmaker's profit).

• Betting markets currently give a 52.4% implied probability that Labour wins an outright majority in the House of Commons, a 37.3% implied probability that there is a hung parliament with no single party holding a majority, and a 12.5% implied probability that the Conservatives hold onto a majority.

Chart.1 Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Most Seats at Next General Election, %

Source: Smarkets