Polish officials warned that Belarusian military provocations may continue, with Deputy Defence Minister Wojciech Skurkiewicz noting that "no scenario can be ruled out," with Minsk often taking action "below the threshold of war," which can take many different forms. Deputy Foreign Minister Piotr Wawrzyk said that the recent provocations are "part of a cycle."

These comments came after two Belarusian military helicopters crossed the border at a very low altitude, avoiding radar detection. According to an analysis by Onet, the incursion was most likely deliberate, as the aircraft flew over a fence set up on the border, penetrated around 3km into Poland's airspace, circled around the area as civilians took photographs, and then hovered above a site where Polish troops were deployed until recently.
Onet reporter Witold Jurasz speculate that the incident was clearly a provocation rather than an act of aggression. He writes that Minsk may have sought to accomplish several aims, which include creating another political scandal in Poland, as well as pressuring Warsaw to maintain communications with Belarus due to its readiness to take potentially dangerous action.
Analysts from the independent Belarusian Hajun Project wrote that "since the evening of July 30, [President Alexander] Lukashenko has been at the Viskuli residence, 7.5km from the border with Poland." The two helicopters (likely Mi-24 and Mi-8) were deployed to protect him at that time and may have crossed into Poland while patrolling the border. Contrary to the Onet analysis, they believe that the proximity of Lukashenko's residence means that the incursion was likely an accident.
Similar tensions may continue in the future, raising the risk of a dangerous escalation, following the arrival of Wagner Group mercenaries and the reported deployment of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus. However, the bar for a full-scale confrontation remains high, with Poland and its NATO allies likely to take a measured approach to addressing such incidents to avoid unwanted escalation.

POLAND: Belarusian Helicopters Which Crossed Border May Have Been Deployed To Protect Lukashenko

Last updated at:Aug-02 13:17By: Krzysztof Kruk

These comments came after two Belarusian military helicopters crossed the border at a very low altitude, avoiding radar detection. According to an analysis by Onet, the incursion was most likely deliberate, as the aircraft flew over a fence set up on the border, penetrated around 3km into Poland's airspace, circled around the area as civilians took photographs, and then hovered above a site where Polish troops were deployed until recently.
Onet reporter Witold Jurasz speculate that the incident was clearly a provocation rather than an act of aggression. He writes that Minsk may have sought to accomplish several aims, which include creating another political scandal in Poland, as well as pressuring Warsaw to maintain communications with Belarus due to its readiness to take potentially dangerous action.
Analysts from the independent Belarusian Hajun Project wrote that "since the evening of July 30, [President Alexander] Lukashenko has been at the Viskuli residence, 7.5km from the border with Poland." The two helicopters (likely Mi-24 and Mi-8) were deployed to protect him at that time and may have crossed into Poland while patrolling the border. Contrary to the Onet analysis, they believe that the proximity of Lukashenko's residence means that the incursion was likely an accident.
Similar tensions may continue in the future, raising the risk of a dangerous escalation, following the arrival of Wagner Group mercenaries and the reported deployment of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus. However, the bar for a full-scale confrontation remains high, with Poland and its NATO allies likely to take a measured approach to addressing such incidents to avoid unwanted escalation.

POLAND: Belarusian Helicopters Which Crossed Border May Have Been Deployed To Protect Lukashenko

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