CoreLogic house prices in November fell 1.1% m/m in Australia to be down 5.4% y/y. This was in line with the 1.1% drop in October suggesting that the housing correction isn’t accelerating. CoreLogic NZ house prices fell 0.6% m/m to be down 2.9% y/y, which was a further deceleration in the adjustment despite 400bp of tightening.

• Australian house prices fell for the seventh consecutive month and are now down 7.3% from their April 2022 peak, which is still only a small retracement of the 25% rise in the 18-months prior to the peak. Most forecasters are expecting about a 20% drop from the peak.
• House prices in NZ are now 8.1% below their March 2022 peak but they rose 41.4% over the previous cycle and so the current correction has a long way to go to unwind this. The moderate housing market adjustment so far likely reflects RBNZ Governor Orr’s comment that the neutral policy rate is probably higher as there hasn’t yet been the same pass through of rate hikes to mortgage rates.
• CoreLogic Australian house prices are falling faster than in NZ despite less tightening and a lower peak in the market.

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/CoreLogic/Bloomberg