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(MNI) London – All timings are subject to change. 

Monday 11 May:

• Russia-Ukraine: The third day of a temporary ceasefire for Victory Day commemorations is in place. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that aerial attacks on his country’s cities were halted, the fighting on the frontlines continues. Zelenskyy is looking to extend the ceasefire, but it appears unlikely that this will be implemented, even with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comment that the war is “coming to an end”.
• United Kingdom: PM Sir Keir Starmer delivered a speech on the morning of 11 May intended to dissuade Labour MPs from moving towards his ouster following poor results for the governing party in the 7 May local/devolved parliament elections. Focus after the speech turns to the actions of potential challengers, after former junior minister Catherine West MP confirmed she would look to ensure a leadership contest in September if she can secure the backing of 81 fellow Labour lawmakers.

• The April CPI report is released tomorrow at 0830ET with analysts towards the mid-point of the unrounded range expecting core CPI pressures to be ~10bps overstated due to rental inflation payback from the Oct 2025 government shutdown distortion.
• Bloomberg consensus sees headline rising 0.6% M/M and core 0.3% M/M, for relatively higher feedthrough to core than was the case in March when headline increased 0.87% M/M and core 0.20% M/M, the latter in particular undershooting expectations.
• Judging by eleven unrounded analyst estimates below, the headline risks look to lean on the softer side (median 0.56% M/M) but with core skewed higher (median 0.36% M/M).
• There’s a wide range to these unrounded core estimates, from 0.29% (BofA, NWM and Nomura) to 0.50% (Wells Fargo). Whilst they all account for the six-month rental inflation rotation factor, this is still a driver of additional uncertainty this month owing to it essentially doubling the typical range of estimates for the OER and primary rents components. We’ll touch on the details in due course.
• Tentative core PCE tracking sits at another solid 0.27% M/M in April (median of six estimates ranging 0.22-0.29%) after 0.29% in March and an average 0.37% M/M through Dec-Feb.

OI data points to modest net long setting as gilt futures ticked higher on Friday.

• OI rose by ~2.7K or 0.23% as markets showed increased optimism re: a U.S.-Iran deal (which was not forthcoming over the weekend) and PM Starmer’s Labour Party avoided the worst-case scenario (2,000+ seat losses) in the local elections.
• OI is still ~13K below the April high, with trading in recent sessions generally best summarised as fairly non-committal.