UKRAINE: Zelenskyy-US & Ukraine To Hold Peace Plan Talks Today

Dec-10 14:58

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has posted on X confirming that Ukraine and the US will hold talks on the 20-point peace plan draft today, as well as a document detailing the process of the post-war reconstruction of the country and economic development. There had been speculation that Ukraine could present its amended draft of the peace plan as soon as today, but Zelenskyy only says that "we expect to deliver this document to the United States in the near future". It is unclear at present who will be involved in these talks. It is unclear at present at what level these talks will take place or the identities of those involved. 

  • Zelenskyy also confirms a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing on Thursday, 11 December. The meeting, to be held via videoconference and involving countries that have committed to sending peacekeepers to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal, will be the first talks between Ukraine and its allies since US President Donald Trump's bombshell interview in which he accused European leaders of being "weak" and demanding that Zelenskyy is “...going to have to get on the ball and start accepting things...When you’re losing, because he’s losing.”
  • With the White House, and Trump in particular, appearing impatient at the lack of progress in peace talks, Zelenskyy reiterated that his team is working "virtually 24/7" to identify a path to ending the war.
  • Zelenskyy: "This week may bring news for all of us – and for bringing the bloodshed to an end."

Historical bullets

BONDS: Tsys Extend Recovery

Nov-10 14:56

The early NY squeeze higher in Tsys extends, with U.S. paper unwinding much of the underperformance that came after the weekend developments towards reopening the government. Tsys now only ~0.5bp wider vs. Bunds on the day.

  • TY futures get within 0-00+ of closing the opening gap lower before the rally stalls.
  • Bund & gilt futures still trade below Friday highs.
  • A fresh move higher in e-minis allows peripherals & OATs to maintain outperformance within EGBs.
  • A block sale in U.S. FV futures and soft demand at the latest BoE APF operation sees bonds off highs.

UK FISCAL: Reeves hints heavily at end to 2 child benefit cap

Nov-10 14:53

Reeves not fully committing but seems to be heavily hinting at an end to the 2 child benefit cap.

  • This would cost around GBP3.5bln.
  • She says "don't think we can lose sight as well of the costs to our economy in allowing child poverty to go unchecked" as well as making the social argument.

BOE APF SALES RESULTS: 80% of sales of the 0.875% Oct-29 gilt

Nov-10 14:51

80% of the sales today were of the 0.875% Oct-29 gilt.