SECURITY: Zelenskyy Receives 'Draft Peace Plan' From US

Nov-20 16:42

Reuters reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office has received the “draft peace plan” for Ukraine from the United States. Reuters notes that the presidential office said Zelenskyy, “expects to discuss with [US President Donald] Trump diplomatic opportunities in the coming days.”

  • Zelenskyy added that the US and Ukraine will “work on peace plan provisions after Ukraine outlined its fundamental principles,” suggesting that Ukraine will submit a series of counterproposals.  
  • The confirmation from Kyiv comes amid uncertainty over the strategy behind the plan, seemingly drafted between the US and Russia, without Ukrainian or European input.
  • Observers have speculated the US could present the plan to Kyiv as a fait accompli, that Ukraine would be disempowered to reject, due to Russian battlefield gains in the east of the country and a politically damaging corruption scandal that has weakened Zelenskyy’s hand domestically.
  • As the plan appears to overwhelmingly favour Russian priorities - including territorial concessions in Donbas, severe restrictions on Ukraine’s military, and recognition of Russian as the official language of Ukraine - it is likely that the plan will function as a starting point for negotiations.
  • Meanwhile, the US Congress appears to be edging closer to moving the long-stalled package of Russia sanctions and secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy products.
  • US European Command noted in a statement on X a short time ago that Germany has delivered additional US Patriot missile systems to Ukraine as part of an onward supply deal with NATO. Delivery of the systems suggests that the US will continue to supply weapons to Ukraine via the agreement, despite the hardline optics of the peace proposal.

Historical bullets

SOFR OPTIONS: Dec'25 SOFR Call Condor Sale

Oct-21 16:40
  • -5,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.37/96.50/96.62 call condors, 7.25 vs. 96.37/0.10%

CHINA: China in Trilateral Currency Swap Talks with Japan and South Korea

Oct-21 16:36
  • "*CHINA EYES 3-WAY CURRENCY SWAP WITH JAPAN,SOUTH KOREA: SCMP" (BBG)
    • “Beijing seeks to strengthen regional financial ties and boost yuan use as US trade pressures weigh on East Asian economies”
    • "China is in talks with Japan and South Korea – both US allies – about a possible trilateral currency swap to bolster the region’s financial safety net and deepen economic cooperation amid US President Donald Trump’s trade war, according to a source familiar with the issue."
  • Full piece: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/money-wealth/article/3329849/china-eyes-3-way-currency-swap-japan-and-south-korea-amid-trumps-tariff-war-source

LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar

Oct-21 16:32
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • 10/22 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-1.8%, --)
  • 10/22 1130 US Tsy 17W bill auction 
  • 10/22 1300 US Tsy $13B 20Y Note re-open (91210UN6)
  • Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI