BUND TECHS: (Z6) Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 125.74 High Jul 10 
• RES 3: 125.51 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 124.85 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 124.29 20-day EMA           
• PRICE: 123.54 @ 05:53 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 123.49 Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 123.09 1.000 proj of the Jun 30 - Jul 8 - 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 123.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 122.46 1.236 proj of the Jun 30 - Jul 8 - 10 price swing  

The trend needle in Bund futures futures continues to point south. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low on Friday, reinforcing bearish conditions and maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 123.09 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is around the 50-day EMA - currently at 124.85.

• The follow through for gold continued in Asia today with lossess of -0.66% to be at US$4,424.
• This sees bullion testing the 20-day EMA of $4,428.   A break below seess the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs all converge
• The convergence of the 50, 100, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) is a powerful technical signal.  In technical analysis, this specific setup is known as an EMA Compression or a Moving Average Squeeze. Rather than signaling a direction, it serves as a major warning that a market is transitioning from a period of quiet consolidation into a phase of high volatility and explosive expansion.
• Because Chairman Warsh tied future monetary tightening strictly to economic indicators, macro data will cause heightened volatility. August purchasing managers' data will provide an updated health check on US economic momentum. Soft data could revive hopes of a Fed pause.Employment Indicators: Early labor data leading into the next nonfarm payrolls report will heavily swing market sentiment. Weakening jobs data typically cushions gold by dampening rate hike narratives.

source Bloomberg FInance LP / MNI 

After falling last week, oil prices are higher in Monday’s trading following US strikes on Iranian rocket launchers primed to dispatch mines into the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command said it continues to monitor the region and will intervene again to protect shipping. Iran retaliated by targeting US forces in Jordan but according to Fox they were intercepted without a material impact. It also just reported a supertanker that struck a mine and is on fire.

• WTI is currently up 2.4% to $85.37/bbl after falling to $84.11. It reached $85.69 on the open. Brent is 2.4% higher at $90.22, breaching $90 and holding the break. It made a high of $90.69 after declining to $89.03.
• This is the first US-Iran military action in over a month as the US’ focus shifted to economic pressure. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that a second bank that operates with Iran will be sanctioned and others are likely to follow. He mentioned the next stage could be cutting financial institutions off from the USD-based system.
• Last week Oman said a provisional agreement with Iran had been reached but details would be decided over the following 60 days. While direct US-Iran talks were apparently not taking place, communication was occurring through mediators. It is highly uncertain if Sunday’s events will impact both negotiations.
• Bloomberg reports that according to traders 6-8 mbd is traversing Hormuz.
• The US and Venezuela agreed to allow the US to control over 65 bn barrels of proven reserves. There has been widespread criticism in Venezuela but President Rodriguez said that they will receive an extra $19/bbl in profit. US President Trump said it will be used to rebuild the US’ SPR.
• Later the US Dallas Fed August manufacturing and German preliminary August CPI print. The G20 finance ministers & central bank governors’ meeting continues. The UK is closed.