WTI TECHS: (Z6) Retracement Mode Extends

• RES 4: $4434.7 - High Sep 10
• RES 3: $4399.6 - High Sep 18  
• RES 2: $4276.2 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $4222.5 - 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: $4183.0 @ 08:27 BST Oct 12
• SUP 1: $4066.6 - Low Oct 07   
• SUP 2: $4065.6 - Low Aug 5
• SUP 3: $3996.1 - Low Jul 29
• SUP 4: $3943.3 - Low Jun 30 low and a key medium-term support

Conditions in Gold remain bearish and the metal continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A fresh cycle low last week also reinforces the bear theme. A resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $3943.3, the Jun 30 low and a key medium-term support. Initial firm resistance to watch is $4276.2, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible reversal.

"In an interview with Defapress, a member of the Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, warned against any aggression towards Kharg Island, stating: "In the event of an attack on Kharg Island, the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will respond to the source of the aggression, and this response will not be limited to American bases.""

• "During the Iran-Iraq War, Kharg Island became a symbol of resistance. This resistance was demonstrated in two areas: the steadfastness of the people of this region and the efforts of the armed forces, particularly the naval forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Army."
• "The resistance of the armed forces on Kharg Island and their efforts to defend this region are worthy of respect, and this defensive readiness sends a clear message to the enemies."

Gilt yields are 2-3bp lower, with a tentative Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire” agreement and Russia partially removing its diesel export ban weighing on energy prices in early Monday trade.

• Still, bears remain in technical control, with cycle highs in yields presenting the initial areas of interest for bears (4.971% in 2s, 5.521% in 10s and 6.045% in 30s).
• 2s10s steadies around 50bp after failing to hold breaks above 60bp in recent sessions. Similar picture for 5s30s, back to ~95bop after failing to hold above 100bp. Both curves remain comfortably above September cycle lows.