SCHATZ TECHS: (Z6) Corrective Cycle

Portugal and the EU are still due to sell bills this week, while Germany and France have already come to the market. We expect issuance of E18.7bln, down from E32.0bln last week.

• This morning, Portugal will look to come to the market with a combined E1.25-1.50bln of the 10-month Jul 16, 2027 BT and the new 12-month Sep 17, 2027 BT.
• Finally today, the EU will look to sell up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Dec 4, 2026 EU-bill, up to E1.5bln of the 6-month Mar 5, 2027 EU-bill and up to E2.0bln of the 12-month Sep 3, 2027 EU-bill.

• RES 4: 1.3733 High Feb 4
• RES 3: 1.3696 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Jun 24 bear cycle
• RES 2: 1.3603/76 High Aug 27 / 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3568 High Sep 9
• PRICE: 1.3488 @ 06:39 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 1.3464 Low Sep 14 and 15
• SUP 2: 1.3408 50.0% retracement of the Jun 24 - Aug 21 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 1.3345 61.8% retracement of the Jun 24 - Aug 21 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.3274 Low Jul 28

GBPUSD is trading at its recent lows. The pair has pierced support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.3492, and EMA marks a key short-term pivot level. A second important support lies at 1.3475, a trendline drawn from the Jun 24 low. This level has also been pierced. A clear break of both support points would highlight a stronger bear threat and open 1.3408, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is 1.3568, the Sep 9 high.

• RES 4: 114.520 High Aug 25 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 114.160 High Aug 27   
• RES 2: 113.570/820 High Sep 4 / Low Aug 20
• RES 1: 112.460/113.201 High Nov 11 / 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 112.100 @ 06:17 BST Sep 16
• SUP 1: 111.890 Low Sep 15      
• SUP 2: 111.867 2.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 20 - 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 111.640 3.000 proj of the Aug 5 - 20 - 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 111.413 3.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 20 - 25 price swing

A downtrend in Bobl futures remains firmly in place. The contract is trading at its recent lows and a fresh cycle lows yesterday reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bear-mode position. This continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 111.867, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 113.201, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.