COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Return to Week's Lows, Bearish Theme Reinforced
A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and the Nov 25 move lower reinforces this theme. A resumption of bearish price action would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high. Gold continues to trade inside a range, for now. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance to watch is $2721.4, the Nov 25 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish short-term development. Key support to monitor is $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
- WTI Crude down $0.35 or -0.51% at $67.97
- Natural Gas down $0.05 or -1.49% at $3.035
- Gold spot up $9.85 or +0.37% at $2641.65
- Copper up $5.25 or +1.25% at $424.55
- Silver up $0.01 or +0.02% at $31.329
- Platinum down $2.85 or -0.3% at $937.62
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COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Reverse This Week's Earlier Gains, Bearish Theme Intact
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery, including this week’s gains, appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a clear reversal would instead refocus attention on the key S/T resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is $72.67, the Nov 5 high. The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a breach of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are on the $2800.0 handle next. Price has breached support around the 20-day EMA. An extension lower would signal scope for a deeper correction, towards 2642.7, the 50-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $1.6 or -2.22% at $70.38
- Natural Gas up $0.01 or +0.19% at $2.674
- Gold spot down $20.45 or -0.75% at $2723.88
- Copper down $11.8 or -2.64% at $435.9
- Silver down $0.4 or -1.23% at $32.27
- Platinum down $13.05 or -1.3% at $988.57
EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Rallies to Fresh High, Back Above 20-Day EMA
Eurostoxx 50 futures are volatile but remain closer to their recent lows. Last week’s move down, resulted in a breach of 4914.00, the Oct 16 low. Note that 4884.06, 38.2% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle, has also been cleared. This exposes 4815.50 next, the 50.0% retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 5015.00, the Oct 29 high, where a break would highlight a reversal. First resistance is 4940.00, today’s intraday high. S&P E-Minis have recovered from their recent lows. A key short-term support has been defined at 5724.25, the Nov 4 low. Price is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the continuation higher has resulted in a print above the bull trigger at 5927.25, the Oct 17 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, a breach of 5724.25 is required to reinstate a bearish threat.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 1005.77 pts or +2.61% at 39480.67 and the TOPIX ended 51.66 pts higher or +1.94% at 2715.92.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 3.181 pts or -0.09% at 3383.806 and the HANG SENG ended 468.59 pts lower or -2.23% at 20538.38.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 208.27 pts or +1.08% at 19466.69, FTSE 100 higher by 108.83 pts or +1.33% at 8280.52, CAC 40 up 122.37 pts or +1.65% at 7529.71 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 49.8 pts or +1.02% at 4920.29.
- Dow Jones mini up 1114 pts or +2.63% at 43491, S&P 500 mini up 125.25 pts or +2.15% at 5937.5, NASDAQ mini up 355 pts or +1.75% at 20698.5.
EQUITIES: US Banks, Oil & Gas Rally, Chipmakers and Global Supply Chains Lag
With pre-market US trade formally opening ~50 minutes ago - the Trump trade effect is being most keenly felt on US banks, the O&G sector and single name stocks that have been closely tied to the Presidential campaign:
- US Banks (JP Morgan up 6%, Citi up 6.5%, Bank of America up 7.5%)
- Oil explorers (ExxonMobil up 3%, Chevron up 2.7%)
- Specific Trump-tied names (Tesla up 13%, Trump Media up 43%)
Interestingly, chipmakers are firmer generally, but not replicating the sharp gains seen elsewhere (NVIDIA up 1.3%, AMD up 1.1%) - the same case for stocks closely tied to global supply chains (Apple up 0.8%, Amazon up 0.7%).
