AMERICAS OIL: WTI Crude Oil reversed some of the gains seen yesterday

February 28 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI Crude Oil reversed some of the gains seen yesterday after further threats from President Donald Trump around tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, though the market recovered slightly following Zelensky’s fiery meeting with Trump at the White House and with a decline in the Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

• Concern for the impact of rising trade tensions, with a possible further 10% tariff on China, has raised global growth and sentiment concerns, adding to poor economic data.
• US tariffs of 10% on Canada energy are still planned to be implemented on March 4, impacting around 4mbd to US refiners.
• Venezuela has no plan to address the expected production decline after Chevron's waiver to export crude expires under US President Donald Trump's order, Argus said.
• Russian oil flows into India have shown further signs of slipping in February as Washington has ramped up sanctions.
• Saudi Aramco may cut the Arab Light OSP to Asia by about $0.15/bbl in April to a premium of $3.75/bbl to the Oman-Dubai benchmark, according to a Bloomberg survey
• Launch of Oldelval’s pipeline expansion expected to allow for 30% boost in Vaca Muerta output this year, Platts reports.
• Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent crude oil prices will remain within a range of $70 to $85 per barrel in 2025.
• US crude production rose about 1% to 13.4 mb/d in December according to the EIA also up 0.7% m/m.
• The US total rig count was up 1 w/w at 593 though oil rigs fell 2 to 486. This was down 18 rigs or 3.6% y/y.
• The US and Ukraine failed to reach a deal on natural resources after Zelensky left the White House prematurely without a deal.
• Cracks have fallen amid concerns around global trade friction ahead of US tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China to take effect on March 4.
• The NOAA 6–14-day outlook remains bearish through Mar 13 for heating demand with below-normal conditions forecast in the Southwest, but milder conditions expected across the midsection of the continent though northern New England cools late in the period. Elevated heating demand is likely in the southern parts of PADDs 4 and 5, with below normal demand in most of PADDs 1-3 though demand will gradually rise in the northern tier of PADD 1.
  • WTI Apr futures were down 0.9% at $69.72
  • WTI May futures were down 0.9% at $69.30
  • RBOB Mar futures were down 1.3% at $1.97
  • ULSD Mar futures were down 1.7% at $2.35
  • US gasoline crack down 0.5$/bbl at 23.51$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down 1.1$/bbl at 27.43$/bbl