OIL: WTI Consolidates Around $70.00

In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures closed stronger, +12 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys finished richer on Monday, correcting from Friday's sharp post-data cheapening even as the $119bn in auctions loom.

• MNI US DATA: NY Fed: Consumers Less Pessimistic On Jobs, Finances (link) The vast majority of Labor Market and Household Finance categories in the NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) improved in May, though many remain weaker compared with late 2024/early 2025 as tariff uncertainty appears to continue in respondents' minds.
• MNI JAPAN: Govt Reportedly Considering Fresh Drive for Cash Handouts: (link) The Japanese government are reportedly mulling cash handouts as a relief measure, according to Mainichi. Not the first time we've seen this policy topic recently - this seems to be reviving an old policy idea that was dropped as recently as mid-April, when the government dropped plans for tariff-tied cash handouts before the election in the upper house.
• Bloomberg - "The BOJ will probably slow the pace of tapering its JGB purchases next fiscal year at the board's upcoming meeting to around 200 billion ($1.38 billion) per quarter, former official Eiji Maeda said. "They won't keep going with 400 billion," he said"
• Today, the local calendar will see Money Stock and Machine Tool Orders data. 

NZ Finance Minister Willis told Bloomberg News that following advice from Treasury she believes that the RBNZ should increase the number of meetings by one to 8 and thus reduce the 12-week long summer break, which she said was a concern. More scheduled meetings would allow the MPC to respond to economic developments. She noted that the RBNZ meets fewer times a year than other central banks. The RBNZ has not responded yet. 

• Willis said “I’m particularly concerned about the 12-week break over summer, which is a long time to go between meetings … The central banks of England, Canada, Australia and the United States have shorter breaks and meet more frequently. I think the Reserve Bank should return to meeting eight times a year.”
• When asked previously about the long summer holiday, the RBNZ has said that it can respond to changing economic conditions in between meetings and that it continues to monitor data and events closely over December/January even though the MPC doesn’t convene.
• Treasury advised that the RBNZ could consider the option of meeting more frequently, which initially could be discussed by the central bank and Treasury leadership. This could then be followed by the RBNZ giving its own suggestions on the issue.
• Willis told Bloomberg though that it is a decision for the RBNZ to make but Treasury believes that there will be internal discussions about it at the central bank. 

ACGBs (YM +3.0 & XM +2.0) are stronger after US tsys finished richer on Monday, correcting from Friday's sharp post-data cheapening.

• In a relatively quiet week in Australia, the focus will be on survey data and whether they show any “observable effects on the Australian economy from developments in the global economy” (RBA May meeting minutes).
• On Tuesday, the local calendar will see Westpac consumer confidence for June and NAB’s business survey for May. While business confidence has been oscillating around zero for some time. The employment and price/cost components will remain of particular interest.
• On Thursday, Melbourne Institute inflation expectations for June are out. After printing below 4% in March, they have remained above this mark in the last two months, with May at 4.1%.
• Cash ACGBs are 2-4bps cheaper after yesterday’s holiday with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -17bps.
• The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +2.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing shows a 25bp rate cut in July is given an 82% probability, with a cumulative 75bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 3.84%).
• This week, AOFM plans to sell A$1000mn of the 1.75% 21 November 2032 bond on Wednesday.