US DATA: Weekly Claims As Expected, Still Relatively Healthy
Jul-09 12:57
Weekly jobless claims didn’t offer any surprises with the initial claims four-week average easing a little after rising through May and June whilst continuing claims again consolidated rather than extended an increase off May lows.
- Initial claims were close to expected as they dipped to 215k (sa, cons 217k) in the week to Jul 4 after an upward revised 217k (initial 215k)
- The four-week average drifted lower to 219k back to early June levels having peaked at 225k in the four weeks to Jun 20 for its highest since Nov 2025.
- There were some conflicting state-level moves behind the 10k increase in the NSA level of national claims. Most of the larger rises look in line with seasonal norms around the start of school holidays or auto plant retooling (California +8.5k, NY +4.9k and Michigan +4.4k) although Missouri’s 5.9k increase stands out a little. Largest declines came from New Jersey (-3.0k), Connecticut (-2.6k) and Oregon (-1.8k).
- Continuing claims were little changed at 1814k (sa, cons 1814k) in the week to Jun 27 after a downward revised 1806k (initial 1814k), consolidating rather than extending an increase off May lows of 1718k. It’s still a relatively modest increase compared to the decline from the >1900k readings seen through 2H25.
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MNI: US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +9.1% WK ENDED JUN 06 VS YR AGO WK
Jun-09 12:55
- MNI: US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +9.1% WK ENDED JUN 06 VS YR AGO WK
- US REDBOOK: JUN STORE SALES +9.1% VS YR AGO MO
EU-BOND SYNDICATION: Dual tranche: 2.50% Oct-2030 / 3.625% Dec-2040: Allocations
Jun-09 12:40
2.50% Oct-2030 (ISIN: EU000A4EG021)
- Size: E3bln (WNG)
- Books closed in excess of E64.5bln (inc E4.5bln JLM interest)
- Spread set at MS+5bps (Guidance was MS + 8 bps area)
- HR 100% vs 2.20% Oct-30 Bobl (DE000BU25059)
3.625% Dec-2040 (ISIN: EU000A4EJF17)
- Size: E5bln (WNG)
- Books closed in excess of E96.5bln (incl. E5bln JLM interest)
- Spread set at 3.375% Oct-39 EU-bond + 10bps (Guidance was + 12 bps area)
- HR 99% vs 2.60% May-41 Bund (DE000BU2F009)
For both:
- Settlement: 16 June 2026 (T+5)
- Barclays (DM/B&D) / BNP Paribas / BofA Securities / Santander / UBS
- Timing: Hedge deadline 13:55BST / 14:55CET. Pricing later today
From market source / MNI colour
FOREX: NZD Recovers Following 3.5% June Pull Lower
Jun-09 12:39
- NZD outperformance Tuesday disguises the 3.5% NZDUSD pullback seen across June, where the entirety of the post-RBNZ surge was reversed. After breaching short-term support at 0.5815, and printing a brief low of 0.5780, spot has subsequently recovered to 0.5840 as we head into the Tuesday NY session.
- Overnight New Zealand manufacturing activity data saw the strongest volume increase since Q4 2021, likely supporting Q1 GDP (scheduled for release next week) which may have helped today's recovery somewhat.
- The RBNZ is seen as the most hawkish central bank within G10 when looking at market expectations for tightening through the remainder of this year, with roughly three 25bp hikes priced. It remains to be seen to what extent Governor Bullock will deliver on this path as the Iran war supply shock will not only drive up inflation, but is also expected to hit GDP (the RBNZ is expecting growth to be zero in Q2). Next up, the May BNZ manufacturing PMI is released on Friday. The index has held in expansionary sector since June last year but moderated close to neutral in April.
- Morgan Stanley remains neutral on NZD, stating that RBNZ repricing has supported NZD near term, but weak growth momentum and negative carry remain a challenge for short AUDNZD positions, which should keep the cross elevated over the medium-term, around 1.20.
